Match report →
Mexico – Ghana2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mexico
1.93
Total xG
2.86
Ghana
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mexico | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −1.10 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 14, 61 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 75, 61 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Ghana's severely limited goal threat: According to data, only 0% of Ghana's usual starting eleven offensive strength is available.
- Mexico's excellent form and solid defense: Mexico is unbeaten in their last 5 games and concedes an average of only 0.2 goals per game this season.
- Ghana's defensive weakness: Ghana has suffered losses in their last 4 games and conceded an average of 3.5 goals per away match.
Risks
- Key absences for Ghana: K. Sulemana (Unknown Injury), M. Kudus (Muscle Injury), and A. Boakye (Yellow Card Suspension) are unavailable.
- Limited data availability: Missing head-to-head data and incomplete xG values for the last 5 games are noted in the dataset.
- Ghana's limited scoring opportunities: Ghana recorded an average of only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games.
All probabilities
Result
Mexico59%
Draw24%
Ghana16%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Mexico or draw84%
Ghana or draw41%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Mexico: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Mexico with Brian Gutiérrez: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Mexico 4-3-3 · Ghana 4-5-1
Mexico
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 15 I. Reyes Romero
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 18 J. Gómez Molina
- 23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 26 B. Gutierrez
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 19 G. Mora Zambrano
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 14 A. González Alba
- 10 E. Vega Rojas
Ghana
- 16 B. Asare
- 21 J. Gyamerah
- 2 O. Naasei Oppong
- 15 N. Adjei
- 6 T. Yegbe
- 7 J. Rak-Sakyi
- 8 M. Ashimeru
- 18 E. Agyei
- 13 D. Agyei
- 17 I. Osman
- 9 F. Afena-Gyan
Substitutes
- 4 E. Álvarez Velázquez
- 17 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 20 M. Chávez García
- 2 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 12 C. Acevedo López
- 9 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 8 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 21 E. Águila Castro
- 13 F. Ochoa Magaña
- 24 L. Chávez Magallón
- 3 C. Montes Castro
- 11 I. Violante Romero
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 11 P. Amoako Junior
- 4 R. Simpson
- 24 J. Afriyie
- 22 A. Issah
- 5 E. Abban
- 1 S. Agbasi
- 14 J. Amankwaah Opoku
- 3 D. Oduro
- 19 D. Antwi
- 20 S. Adams
- 23 E. Adade
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →