Friendly International

Mexico - Ghana

05/23/2026, 02:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Mexico
1.9
Total xG
2.9
Ghana
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
MEXGHA

Mexico

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-1.10
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.35
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 14 vs 75, 61 places gap)
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03

Ghana

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 14, 61 places gap)
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Mexico: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 2
    Mexico with Brian Gutiérrez: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

24%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Ghana's severely limited goal threat: According to data, only 0% of Ghana's usual starting eleven offensive strength is available.
  • Mexico's excellent form and solid defense: Mexico is unbeaten in their last 5 games and concedes an average of only 0.2 goals per game this season.
  • Ghana's defensive weakness: Ghana has suffered losses in their last 4 games and conceded an average of 3.5 goals per away match.
Risk Factors
  • Key absences for Ghana: K. Sulemana (Unknown Injury), M. Kudus (Muscle Injury), and A. Boakye (Yellow Card Suspension) are unavailable.
  • Limited data availability: Missing head-to-head data and incomplete xG values for the last 5 games are noted in the dataset.
  • Ghana's limited scoring opportunities: Ghana recorded an average of only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games.
Overview

Mexico hosts Ghana in a Friendly International match on May 23, 2026, 4:00 AM. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a probability of 59%. Mexico is expected to score 1.93 goals, while Ghana is expected to score 0.93 goals.

Form

Mexico is in excellent form with a record of WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last 5 matches. Most recently, Mexico had two draws, including a 1-1 against Belgium and a 0-0 against Portugal. Ghana, on the other hand, is in a difficult phase with a record of WLLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). The team suffered losses in their last 4 matches, including a 1-2 against Germany and a 1-5 against Austria. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Mexico shows a strong record in 5 season games with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game and only 0.2 goals conceded. The team kept 4 clean sheets. At home, Mexico averages 1.25 goals scored and concedes only 0.25 goals. Ghana has scored an average of 1.0 goal in 2 season games but conceded an alarming 3.5 goals per game, with no clean sheets. Away, they also average 1.0 goal scored and 3.5 goals conceded per game.

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any direct head-to-head encounters between Mexico and Ghana.

Key Players

For Mexico, Armando GonzĂĄlez (Attacker, 2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games), JesĂșs Gallardo (Defender, 0 goals, 2 assists in the last 5 games), and Gilberto Mora (Midfielder, 1 goal in the last 5 games) are important players. For Ghana, Felix Afena-Gyan (Attacker, 0 goals, 0 assists in the last 5 games), Ibrahim Osman (Attacker, 0 goals, 0 assists in the last 5 games), and Majeed Ashimeru (Midfielder, 0 goals, 0 assists in the last 5 games) are among the listed players.

Goalkeepers

RaĂșl Rangel is Mexico's goalkeeper and has recorded 4 clean sheets for his team in 5 appearances this season. For Ghana, Benjamin Asare is expected in goal, who has not recorded any clean sheets this season.

Influences

Mexico benefits from a clear home advantage, averaging 1.25 goals scored and only 0.25 goals conceded in home games. Ghana, however, appears vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.5 goals per away game.

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