Friendly International

Hungary - Kazakhstan

06/09/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Hungary
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Kazakhstan
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
HUNKAZ

Hungary

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.49
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 41 vs 118, 77 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Full strength squad available

Kazakhstan

Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.65
Standings disadvantage (pos 118 vs 41, 77 places gap)
-0.17
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
44% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Hungary with Zsolt Nagy: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Kazakhstan with Bagdat Kairov: 0 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Kazakhstan: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

28%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Critical goal production for Hungary: Only 27% of usual goal threat is available
  • Kazakhstan's defensive vulnerability: The team conceded an average of 2.5 goals per away game this season
  • Hungary's home advantage: The team scored an average of 2.0 goals per home game and has a higher win probability of 52% according to the model
Risk Factors
  • Limited starting eleven strength for Kazakhstan: Only 56% of usual goal threat available
  • Short recovery time for Kazakhstan: Only 3 days since their last match
  • Low shot efficiency for Kazakhstan: Averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Hungary host Kazakhstan in a Friendly International match at Nagyerdei Stadion on June 9, 2026, 7:00 PM. This encounter promises an interesting game without league table implications

Form

Hungary's recent form is WLWDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) over their last five matches, with a win in their last outing

Kazakhstan shows a form of DLWWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five games, having drawn their most recent match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Hungary scored an average of 1.83 goals and conceded 1.67 goals per game this season. At home, they averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

Kazakhstan averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they conceded an average of 2.5 goals

The Nagyerdei Stadion has seen an average of 4.0 total goals per game across 5 matches. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 3 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

No data is available regarding previous head-to-head encounters between Hungary and Kazakhstan

Key Players

For Hungary, BarnabĂĄs Varga scored 3 goals in 2 of 5 appearances with an average rating of 8.42

Dominik Szoboszlai contributed 1 goal and 4 assists in 5 of 5 appearances with a rating of 7.55

Andrås SchÀfer had 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games with a rating of 7.15

For Kazakhstan, Dastan Satpaev stands out with 2 goals in 4 of 5 appearances and a rating of 6.88

Islambek Kuat provided 1 assist in 3 games with a rating of 6.76

Aleksandr Mrynskiy delivered 1 assist in 3 games with a rating of 6.56

Goalkeepers

BalĂĄzs TĂłth is Hungary's goalkeeper, featuring in 4 of 5 recent games and achieving 1 clean sheet in home matches

For Kazakhstan, Temirlan Anarbekov is in goal. Kazakhstan has recorded 2 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Nagyerdei Stadion averages 4.0 goals per game across 5 matches. Both teams scored in 60% of games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals

Hungary's home statistics show 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game

Kazakhstan conceded an average of 2.5 goals per away game

The playing surface is grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.