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Hungary – Kazakhstan3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Hungary
1.64
Total xG
2.61
Kazakhstan
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hungary | Kazakhstan |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 118 vs 41, 77 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 41 vs 118, 77 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 44% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical goal production for Hungary: Only 27% of usual goal threat is available
- Kazakhstan's defensive vulnerability: The team conceded an average of 2.5 goals per away game this season
- Hungary's home advantage: The team scored an average of 2.0 goals per home game and has a higher win probability of 52% according to the model
Risks
- Limited starting eleven strength for Kazakhstan: Only 56% of usual goal threat available
- Short recovery time for Kazakhstan: Only 3 days since their last match
- Low shot efficiency for Kazakhstan: Averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Hungary52%
Draw28%
Kazakhstan21%
Double chance
Hungary or draw79%
Kazakhstan or draw48%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Hungary with Zsolt Nagy: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Kazakhstan with Bagdat Kairov: 0 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Kazakhstan: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Hungary 4-2-3-1 · Kazakhstan 4-2-3-1
Hungary
- 22 B. Tóth
- 2 A. Osváth
- 6 W. Orban
- 5 ?. Markgráf
- 17 C. Styles
- 8 M. Vitális
- 13 A. Schafer
- 23 D. Redzic
- 21 A. Tóth
- 10 D. Szoboszlai
- 19 B. Varga
Kazakhstan
- 12 T. Anarbekov
- 24 A. Mrynskiy
- 2 S. Maliy
- 3 N. Alip
- 11 Y. Vorogovskiy
- 5 I. Kuat
- 20 R. Orazov
- 10 M. Samorodov
- 18 D. Karaman
- 7 Ğ. Kenjebek
- 19 D. Satpaev
Substitutes
- 12 ?. Yaakobishvili
- 4 K. Szűcs
- 7 G. Zsombor
- 16 D. Lukacs
- 1 P. Szappanos
- 18 Z. Nagy
- 15 P. Baráth
- 3 M. Csinger
- 26 ?. Pécsi
- 24 T. Rajmund
- 9 Bendegúz Kovács
- 14 T. Szücs
- 25 N. Szendrei
- 23 A. Sadybekov
- 21 E. Tapalov
- 16 A. Zarutskiy
- 6 A. Kassym
- 8 Z. Amir
- 1 B. Shaizada
- 9 I. Chesnokov
- 4 A. Ashirbek
- 25 S. Sovet
- 14 R. Murtazayev
- 13 A. Nurymbet
- 15 S. Satanov
- 17 M. Toktybay
- 22 M. Abraev
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