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Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - RB Leipzig

05/16/2026, 01:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
SC Freiburg
1.6
Total xG
3.0
RB Leipzig
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SFRL

SC Freiburg

Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Vincenzo Grifo on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Lucas Höler on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Lukas Kübler on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

RB Leipzig

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.01
Rômulo on the bench (9 goals, 5 assists)
Antonio Nusa on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Ridle Baku on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Xaver Schlager on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    RB Leipzig: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    SC Freiburg with Jordy Makengo: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    RB Leipzig with Conrad Harder: 11.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    RB Leipzig: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 5
    SC Freiburg: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical model projects a slight advantage for SC Freiburg with a 40% chance of a home win, compared to 33% for RB Leipzig
  • Form disparity: RB Leipzig shows strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, in contrast to SC Freiburg's 1 win and 3 losses in the same period
  • Head-to-head dominance: RB Leipzig has historically dominated this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 direct duels against SC Freiburg and drawing once
Risk Factors
  • Freiburg's recent defensive vulnerability: SC Freiburg conceded an average of 2.2 goals in the last 5 games, compared to a season average of 1.5
  • Freiburg's reduced offensive output: SC Freiburg's goal production is 1.4 goals per game in the last 5 games, while the season average is 1.6
Overview

SC Freiburg (7th place, 44 points) host RB Leipzig (3rd place, 65 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion. The Bundesliga match takes place on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM. Freiburg aims to improve its position, while Leipzig seeks to secure a Champions League spot

Form

SC Freiburg's form (LLDWL) shows one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches

The last game resulted in a loss for Freiburg

RB Leipzig is in strong form (WWWLW) with four wins and one loss in their last five matches

Leipzig won their last encounter

SC Freiburg's goal production in the last 5 games is 1.4 goals per game, while the season average is 1.6

RB Leipzig consistently scores 2.0 goals per game in their last 5 matches, matching their season average

Statistics

SC Freiburg averages 1.45 home goals scored and concedes 1.05 home goals per game

RB Leipzig averages 1.92 away goals scored and concedes 1.77 away goals per game

The home team scored a total of 47 goals this season, conceded 56 goals, and kept 6 clean sheets

The away team scored a total of 65 goals this season, conceded 43 goals, and kept 11 clean sheets

Freiburg's home games averaged 3.4 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, SC Freiburg has no wins, one draw, and RB Leipzig has four wins

SC Freiburg scored 3 goals, while RB Leipzig scored 12 goals

The last encounter on January 14, 2026, saw RB Leipzig win away with a 2-0 score

RB Leipzig has been dominant in recent meetings

Key Players

For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic is an important attacker with 10 season goals and 1 assist

In the last five games, he scored 2 goals

Johan Manzambi in midfield has 5 season goals and 3 assists, including 2 goals and 1 assist in the last five games

Matthias Ginter is a factor in defense with 2 season goals and 4 assists

For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner in midfield is a crucial player with 13 season goals and 9 assists

In the last five games, he contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

Yan Diomande, an attacker, scored 12 season goals and 7 assists, including 2 goals and 1 assist in the last five games

Conrad Harder in attack has 3 season goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

For SC Freiburg, Noah Atubolu is in goal, having played 33 games this season and keeping 6 clean sheets

Péter Gulácsi is the goalkeeper for RB Leipzig with 22 appearances and 11 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Europa-Park Stadion recorded an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 80% of these games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

SC Freiburg averages 1.45 goals scored and concedes 1.05 goals at home

RB Leipzig averages 1.92 goals scored and concedes 1.77 goals away

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