Friendly International
Norway - Sweden
06/01/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Norway
Sweden
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
29%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Norway with a 43% probability
- Sweden has recently shown a strong offense, consistently scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches
- Norway recorded an average of 2.8 shots on target in their last four matches
Risk Factors
- Norway's starting lineup has only 67% of its usual goal threat available
- Norway recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last four matches
Overview
Norway host Sweden at Ullevaal Stadion for a Friendly International match on June 1, 2026, 7:00 PM
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 43% probability
A draw is calculated at 29% and an away win at 29%
Form
Norway's form in their last four matches is WDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Their last game ended in a draw
Sweden shows a WW form in their last two matches (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Sweden's last game was a win
Statistics
Norway averaged 0.5 goals scored per game and conceded 1.0 goals per game in two matches this season
Recently, Norway scored consistently with an average of 1.0 goals per game, while Sweden scored consistently with an average of 3.0 goals per game
The mathematical analysis forecasts 1.50 expected home goals for Norway and 1.19 expected away goals for Sweden
The probability of both teams scoring is 56%, according to the model
At Ullevaal Stadion, an average of 1.0 goals per game were scored in three matches, with both teams scoring in 33% of cases and 0% of matches having over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any head-to-head matches between Norway and Sweden
Key Players
For Norway, Antonio Nusa (1 goal, 1 assist in 5 games, avg rating 6.98), Julian Ryerson (3 assists in 5 games, avg rating 6.96), and Fredrik Aursnes (avg rating 7.24 in 5 games) are in the starting lineup
For Sweden, Jacob Widell Zetterström (avg rating 7.56 in 1 game), Jesper Karlström (avg rating 6.95 in 5 games), and Herman Johansson (1 assist in 5 games, avg rating 6.87) are in the starting formation
Goalkeepers
In goal for Norway is Ørjan Nyland, who has one clean sheet this season
For Sweden, Jacob Widell Zetterström is expected, for whom no seasonal performance data is available
Influences
Ullevaal Stadion recorded an average of 1.0 goals per game across three matches
Both teams scored in 33% of the games, and 0% of matches had over 2.5 goals
Norway's home statistics for this season are not available
Sweden has no relevant away statistics for this season