Match report →
Norway – Sweden3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Norway
1.50
Total xG
2.69
Sweden
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Norway | Sweden |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.68 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Norway with a 43% probability
- Sweden has recently shown a strong offense, consistently scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game in recent matches
- Norway recorded an average of 2.8 shots on target in their last four matches
Risks
- Norway's starting lineup has only 67% of its usual goal threat available
- Norway recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in their last four matches
All probabilities
Result
Norway43%
Draw29%
Sweden29%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Double chance
Norway or draw71%
Sweden or draw57%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:1
Final score
Lineups
Norway 4-4-2 · Sweden 3-5-2
Norway
- 1 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 26 J. Ryerson
- 3 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 17 T. Heggem
- 5 D. Wolfe
- 22 O. Bobb
- 8 S. Berge
- 14 F. Aursnes
- 20 A. Nordby Nusa
- 7 A. Sørloth
- 11 J. Strand Larsen
Sweden
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 2 G. Lagerbielke
- 4 I. Hien
- 20 E. Smith
- 6 H. Johansson
- 7 L. Bergvall
- 16 J. Karlström
- 18 Y. Ayari
- 8 D. Svensson
- 25 G. Nilsson
- 11 A. Elanga
Substitutes
- 24 S. Langås
- 13 E. Selvik
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 6 P. Berg
- 23 J. Hauge
- 15 F. Bjørkan
- 19 T. Aasgaard
- 12 S. Tangvik
- 25 H. Falchener
- 4 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 2 M. Thorsby
- 16 M. Pedersen
- 18 K. Thorstvedt
- 19 M. Svanberg
- 27 S. Nanasi
- 14 H. Ekdal
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 12 V. Johansson
- 9 A. Isak
- 13 K. Sema
- 10 B. Nygren
- 26 T. Ali
- 23 K. Nordfeldt
- 22 B. Zeneli
- 21 A. Bernhardsson
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