Friendly International
Brazil - Panama
05/31/2026, 09:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.9
0.9
1:1
11%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Brazil
Panama
The Lab
- 1Brazil: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 2Brazil with Lucas Paquetá: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (4 of 6 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
62%
Draw
23%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
38%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts a 62% home win for Brazil and 2.02 expected goals
- Tactical Superiority: Brazil is possession-dominant (56% possession) with an average of 4.8 shots on target, while Panama is counter-oriented (35% possession) with only 2.0 shots on target
- Goal Production: Brazil averages 2.0 goals scored per game, while Panama averages 1.0 goal per game
Risk Factors
- Limited Offensive Threat: Panama records an average of only 2.0 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Lack of H2H Data: There are no historical head-to-head matches to use as a comparison
- Brazil's Home Defense: Brazil concedes an average of 1.5 goals per home game
Overview
Brazil host Panama at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in a Friendly International match on May 31, 2026, 9:30 PM
The mathematical analysis clearly favors Brazil with a 62% win probability at home
Brazil is expected to score 2.02 goals, while Panama is predicted to score 0.92 goals
Form
Brazil's form in the last five matches has been mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses (Form: LWDLW)
Their last outing was a 3-1 victory against Croatia
Panama recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games (Form: LDLDW)
Their most recent result was a 2-1 away win against South Africa
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Brazil averages 2.0 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals per game this season
Both of their home games saw both teams scoring and over 2.5 total goals
Panama averages 1.0 goal scored per game and concedes 1.0 goal per game
Away from home, Panama conceded an average of 0.75 goals
The Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Additionally, both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There are no previous head-to-head encounters between Brazil and Panama listed in the provided dataset
Key Players
For Brazil, Vinicius Junior and Matheus Cunha stand out, both with 3 goals in their last 4 games and rising form
Luiz Henrique showed a decline in form but provided 1 assist in 5 games
For Panama, Ismael Díaz is in rising form with 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games
Kadir Barría scored 1 season goal and provided 1 assist in 5 games
José Córdoba contributed 1 season goal but shows declining form
Goalkeepers
Brazil's goalkeeper, Alisson, has not made any season appearances so far
Panama's goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera has appeared in 2 season games
Neither team recorded any clean sheets this season
Influences
Brazil benefits from home advantage at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
The grass surface of the stadium will influence play
The last 5 matches at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho averaged 3.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals