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Brazil – Panama6 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Brazil
2.02
Total xG
2.94
Panama
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brazil | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 29 vs 6, 23 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 29, 23 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts a 62% home win for Brazil and 2.02 expected goals
- Tactical Superiority: Brazil is possession-dominant (56% possession) with an average of 4.8 shots on target, while Panama is counter-oriented (35% possession) with only 2.0 shots on target
- Goal Production: Brazil averages 2.0 goals scored per game, while Panama averages 1.0 goal per game
Risks
- Limited Offensive Threat: Panama records an average of only 2.0 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Lack of H2H Data: There are no historical head-to-head matches to use as a comparison
- Brazil's Home Defense: Brazil concedes an average of 1.5 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Brazil62%
Draw23%
Panama15%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Brazil or draw85%
Panama or draw38%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
6:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brazil: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Brazil with Lucas Paquetá: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
Brazil 4-2-3-1 · Panama 5-4-1
Brazil
- 1 A. Becker
- 2 W. França Lima
- 14 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 15 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Lobo Silva
- 8 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 21 L. Rosa da Silva
- 11 Raphinha
- 7 V. Júnior
- 9 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Panama
- 22 O. Mosquera
- 23 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 4 F. Escobar Mendieta
- 3 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 2 C. Blackman
- 7 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 11 E. Bárcenas Herrera
- 14 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 10 I. Díaz De León
- 18 C. Waterman Ruiz
Substitutes
- 19 E. Moreira de Sousa
- 25 Thiago
- 20 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 23 E. Santana de Moraes
- 26 R. Rocha
- 17 F. Tavares
- 24 R. Ibañez da Silva
- 13 D. da Silva
- 16 D. dos Santos Justino de Melo
- 12 W. Pereira da Silva
- 18 D. dos Santos de Oliveira
- 1 J. Gunn
- 26 J. Gutiérrez Cornejo
- 27 K. Barria
- 29 J. Murillo Morán
- 28 V. Griffith Mullins
- 15 E. Davis Grajales
- 21 C. Yanis Velasco
- 19 A. Quintero Medina
- 13 J. Ramos Díaz
- 17 J. Fajardo Nelson
- 9 T. Rodríguez Mena
- 12 C. Samudio Murillo
- 30 I. Anderson Hernández
- 5 E. Fariña
- 6 C. Martinez
- 25 R. Miller Molina
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