Friendly International

Wales - Ghana

06/02/2026, 06:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Wales
1.6
Total xG
2.3
Ghana
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

12%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
WALGHA

Wales

Attack weakness (0.17x league average)
-1.36
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+1.04
Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.89
Standings advantage (pos 30 vs 75, 45 places gap)
+0.11

Ghana

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.50
Attack weakness (0.37x league average)
-0.49
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.28
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.24
Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 30, 45 places gap)
-0.13
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Wales enters the match as favorites with a calculated home win probability of 55%
  • Ghana is on a clear negative streak of 5 losses and conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game
  • Wales has shown ball-dominant play with an average of 55% possession in their last 3 games, facing Ghana's counter-oriented style with an average of 1.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Ghana's low average shots on target of 1.6 per game could limit offensive penetration
  • At Cardiff City Stadium, both teams have always scored in the last 2 matches
Overview

Wales hosts Ghana in a Friendly International match at Cardiff City Stadium

The game takes place on June 2, 2026, 8:45 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 55% for Wales

Form

Wales' current form is LLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 3 matches

The last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Northern Ireland

Ghana's form is LLLLL

Ghana recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses in their last 5 matches

Ghana lost their last game 0-2 against Mexico

Statistics

Wales averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game this season

At home, Wales recorded 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded in 1 game

Ghana averaged 0.67 goals scored and 3.0 goals conceded per game in 3 matches

Away from home, Ghana conceded an average of 3.0 goals in 3 games

Cardiff City Stadium saw an average of 2.0 goals per game

In both matches at the stadium, both teams scored

Neither of the two games had over 2.5 goals

Key Players

For Wales, Sorba Thomas has a season performance of 1 goal and an average rating of 7.25

Josh Sheehan has an average rating of 7.22

Neco Williams achieved an average rating of 7.01

For Ghana, Jordan Ayew scored 1 goal this season with an average rating of 7.18

Issahaku Fatawu scored 1 goal and has an average rating of 6.92

Thomas Partey achieved an average rating of 6.71

Goalkeepers

Wales' goalkeeper, Karl Darlow, has 0 clean sheets in 1 game

Ghana's goalkeeper, Lawrence Ati Zigi, kept 0 clean sheets in 3 games

Influences

Wales scored an average of 1.0 goal and conceded 1.0 goal at home

Ghana conceded an average of 3.0 goals away from home

Cardiff City Stadium recorded an average of 2.0 goals per game

In 2 matches at the stadium, both teams always scored

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