Match report →
Wales – Ghana1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Wales
1.56
Total xG
2.30
Ghana
0.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wales | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.17x league average) | −1.36 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +1.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.89 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Attack weakness (0.37x league average) | −0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 30, 45 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 30 vs 75, 45 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Wales enters the match as favorites with a calculated home win probability of 55%
- Ghana is on a clear negative streak of 5 losses and conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game
- Wales has shown ball-dominant play with an average of 55% possession in their last 3 games, facing Ghana's counter-oriented style with an average of 1.6 shots on target
Risks
- Ghana's low average shots on target of 1.6 per game could limit offensive penetration
- At Cardiff City Stadium, both teams have always scored in the last 2 matches
All probabilities
Result
Wales55%
Draw28%
Ghana16%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Wales or draw84%
Ghana or draw45%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
12%
0:0
12%
2:1
9%
Lineups
Wales 4-2-3-1 · Ghana 4-4-1-1
Wales
- 1 K. Darlow
- 3 N. Williams
- 6 J. Rodon
- 16 D. Lawlor
- 15 J. Dasilva
- 5 E. Ampadu
- 22 J. Sheehan
- 20 D. James
- 7 D. Brooks
- 19 S. Thomas
- 13 K. Moore
Ghana
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 M. Senaya
- 4 J. Adjei Adjetey
- 18 J. Opoku
- 14 G. Mensah
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 5 T. Partey
- 15 E. Owusu
- 25 P. Adu
- 22 K. Sulemana
- 9 J. Ayew
Substitutes
- 21 T. King
- 14 C. Roberts
- 11 B. Johnson
- 10 K. Andrews
- 2 C. Mepham
- 18 R. Norrington-Davies
- 17 R. Kpakio
- 8 J. Colwill
- 24 I. Davies
- 9 L. Koumas
- 12 D. Ward
- 23 N. Broadhead
- 25 O. Bostock
- 27 J. Lienou
- 26 C. Congreve
- 2 A. Seidu
- 8 K. Sibo
- 19 I. Williams Arthuer
- 21 K. Peprah Oppong
- 24 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 11 A. Semenyo
- 10 B. Thomas-Asante
- 23 D. Luckassen
- 17 A. Baba
- 6 A. Mumin
- 12 J. Anang
- 3 C. Yirenkyi
- 13 C. Baah
- 16 B. Asare
- 20 A. Boakye
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