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Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach - TSG Hoffenheim

05/16/2026, 01:30 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.3
Total xG
2.6
TSG Hoffenheim
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BMTH

Borussia Mönchengladbach

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.18
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.12
Franck Honorat on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Jens Castrop not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Rocco Reitz not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)

TSG Hoffenheim

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.05
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.01
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    TSG Hoffenheim: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Borussia Mönchengladbach: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Borussia Mönchengladbach with Lukas Ullrich: 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    TSG Hoffenheim: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

30%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Hoffenheim's strong offense (avg 1.97 goals/game) and stable form (3W, 2D in last 5 games)
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent goal production has stalled (avg 0.8 goals recently) with an average of 3.4 shots on target
  • The mathematical analysis indicates a very balanced match with a 36% home win, 30% draw, and 34% away win
Risk Factors
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach's average of 3.4 shots on target in the last 5 games suggests limited offensive threat
  • The very balanced probabilities from the pipeline predictions (36% home win, 30% draw, 34% away win) indicate a high degree of unpredictability for the match
Overview

Borussia Mönchengladbach (13th place, 35 points) host TSG Hoffenheim (5th place, 61 points) at Stadion im Borussia-Park. The Bundesliga match is scheduled for May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM. While Hoffenheim is fighting for a European spot, Gladbach is in the lower mid-table.

Form

Borussia Mönchengladbach's form in the last five matches is LDDWL, which means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last result was a loss. TSG Hoffenheim shows a form of DWWDW, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and no losses in their last five games. Their most recent match ended in a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Borussia Mönchengladbach averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they scored 1.18 and conceded 1.41 goals on average. TSG Hoffenheim is stronger offensively with an average of 1.97 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Hoffenheim averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded. At Stadion im Borussia-Park, the last 5 games averaged 2.0 total goals per match, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 1 of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the 5 previous head-to-head matches, the record is balanced: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 2 times, TSG Hoffenheim also won 2 times, and one match ended in a draw. Gladbach scored 12 goals, while Hoffenheim scored 15. The last encounter on January 14, 2026, was won by TSG Hoffenheim with a 5:1 score.

Key Players

For Borussia Mönchengladbach, Haris Tabakovic with 12 season goals and 2 assists, Kevin Diks with 4 goals, and Joe Scally with 2 goals and 3 assists are important players. For TSG Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric stands out with 14 goals and 6 assists, Fisnik Asllani with 10 goals and 8 assists, and Bazoumana Touré with 5 goals and 9 assists. Andrej Kramaric is showing a rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. For Gladbach, Franck Honorat (2G/6A), Jens Castrop (3G/2A), and Rocco Reitz (0G/4A) are not nominated.

Goalkeepers

Moritz Nicolas is Borussia Mönchengladbach's goalkeeper, making 33 appearances this season with an average rating of 7.14. The team recorded 12 clean sheets. Oliver Baumann is TSG Hoffenheim's goalkeeper, also playing 33 times with an average rating of 6.78. His team achieved 7 clean sheets.

Influences

Playing at home in Stadion im Borussia-Park has some influence on Borussia Mönchengladbach's performance, with an average of 1.18 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded in home matches. TSG Hoffenheim scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.80 goals in away games. The playing surface is grass. In the last 5 games at Stadion im Borussia-Park, an average of 2.0 goals were scored per match.

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