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Netherlands – Algeria0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Netherlands
1.72
Total xG
3.90
Algeria
2.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Netherlands | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (3.58x league average) | +1.92 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.52 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.5 season average) | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 38 vs 7, 31 places gap) | −0.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 38, 31 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts an away win for Algeria with 48% probability and 2.18 expected goals
- Algeria's offensive strength: Algeria averages 3.5 goals per game this season and shows positive recent form with an average of 4.0 goals
- High scoring potential: The model calculates a 74% probability for both teams to score and a 75% probability for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Netherlands' limited starting XI strength: Only 67% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
- Netherlands' defensive approach: Netherlands recently played counter-oriented with an average of 38% possession and 3.0 shots on target per game
- Limited data availability: There are no previous head-to-head meetings between the teams
All probabilities
Result
Netherlands30%
Draw23%
Algeria48%
Double chance
Netherlands or draw52%
Algeria or draw70%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Both teams score
Yes74%
No26%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:1
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Algeria: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
Lineups
Netherlands 4-3-3 · Algeria 4-3-3
Netherlands
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 12 M. Wieffer
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 15 M. van de Ven
- 8 R. Gravenberch
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 21 F. de Jong
- 24 C. Summerville
- 18 D. Malen
- 11 C. Gakpo
Algeria
- 23 L. Zidane
- 3 A. Abada
- 2 A. Mandi
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 15 R. Aït Nouri
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 19 N. Bentaleb
- 8 H. Aouar
- 7 R. Mahrez
- 9 A. Gouiri
- 18 M. Amoura
Substitutes
- 23 M. Flekken
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 19 B. Brobbey
- 13 R. Roefs
- 7 J. Kluivert
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 5 N. Aké
- 25 J. Hato
- 3 M. de Roon
- 16 G. Til
- 9 W. Weghorst
- 17 N. Lang
- 20 T. Koopmeiners
- 26 Q. Timber
- 10 M. Depay
- 22 I. Maza
- 21 R. Bensebaini
- 10 F. Chaïbi
- 13 J. Hadjam
- 26 S. Chergui
- 11 A. Hadj Moussa
- 24 Y. Titraoui
- 12 A. Benbouali
- 17 R. Belghali
- 25 F. Ghedjemis
- 20 A. Boulebina
- 1 M. Mastil
- 16 O. Benbot
- 4 M. Tougai
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