Friendly International

United States - Germany

06/06/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
United States
1.7
Total xG
3.5
Germany
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

5%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
USGER

United States

Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.59
Attack strength (1.34x league average)
-0.14
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.08
Full strength squad available

Germany

Attack strength (3.09x league average)
+1.91
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-1.19
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.11
10% of goal output missing (only 91% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.38
+0.38
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    United States with Christian Pulisic: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

25%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

69%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

47%

Under 3.5

53%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

70%

No

30%

Key Factors
  • Germany's strong offensive performance: The team averages 3.33 goals per game this season and in current form
  • Germany's positive form: The team is on a 3-game winning streak
  • High goal potential: The pipeline analysis predicts a 70% probability for both teams to score and 69% for over 2.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • The United States' defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 3.00 goals per game this season
  • Germany's away defensive record: The team concedes an average of 3.00 goals per away game this season
Overview

The United States host Germany in a Friendly International at Soldier Field on June 6, 2026, 6:30 PM. Both teams are using this match for preparation.

Form

The United States' form is WWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). In their last five games, they recorded 3 wins and 2 losses. The team won their last match. Germany is unbeaten in their last three games with a form of WWW. The team achieved 3 consecutive wins.

Statistics

The United States averaged 1.67 goals scored per game and conceded 3.00 goals per game this season. Germany showed stronger offense with an average of 3.33 goals per game and conceded 1.33 goals per game. The United States kept no clean sheets in home games, while Germany had 1 clean sheet in 2 home games. At Soldier Field, an average of 3.6 goals were scored per game. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

Historically, there has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams. Germany won 1 game, while the United States recorded no wins. There were no draws. The goal difference is 0:1 in favor of Germany. The last encounter ended on June 26, 2014, with a 0:1 victory for Germany. Germany has been more dominant in recent direct encounters.

Key Players

For the United States, Folarin Balogun is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Christian Pulisic contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 games. SergiƱo Dest showed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games. For Germany, Florian Wirtz is a key midfielder with 3 season goals and 2 assists. Kai Havertz scored 1 season goal and 2 goals in his last 5 games. Joshua Kimmich is an important midfielder with 1 season assist and 3 assists in his last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

For the United States, Matt Freese is expected in goal, having played in 1 season game. The United States have recorded no clean sheets this season. For Germany, Oliver Baumann is expected in goal, having played in 2 season games and recorded 1 clean sheet.

Influences

The match will take place on a grass surface at Soldier Field. The United States averaged 1.67 goals scored at home and conceded 3.00 goals. Germany averaged 4.00 goals scored away and conceded 3.00 goals. The stadium recorded an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the games.

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