Match report →
United States – Germany1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
United States
1.73
Total xG
3.53
Germany
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | United States | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (3.09x league average) | +1.91 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.19 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 10% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Germany's strong offensive performance: The team averages 3.33 goals per game this season and in current form
- Germany's positive form: The team is on a 3-game winning streak
- High goal potential: The pipeline analysis predicts a 70% probability for both teams to score and 69% for over 2.5 goals
Risks
- The United States' defensive vulnerability: The team concedes an average of 3.00 goals per game this season
- Germany's away defensive record: The team concedes an average of 3.00 goals per away game this season
All probabilities
Result
United States36%
Draw25%
Germany39%
Double chance
United States or draw61%
Germany or draw64%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- United States with Christian Pulisic: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
United States 4-2-3-1 · Germany 4-2-3-1
United States
- 24 F. Matthew
- 16 A. Freeman
- 12 M. Robinson
- 13 T. Ream
- 5 A. Robinson
- 17 M. Tillman
- 4 T. Adams
- 2 S. Dest
- 8 W. McKennie
- 10 C. Pulisic
- 20 F. Balogun
Germany
- 12 O. Baumann
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 4 J. Tah
- 15 N. Schlotterbeck
- 18 N. Brown
- 23 F. Nmecha
- 5 A. Pavlović
- 19 L. Sané
- 10 J. Musiala
- 17 F. Wirtz
- 7 K. Havertz
Substitutes
- 7 G. Reyna
- 23 J. Scally
- 22 M. McKenzie
- 21 T. Weah
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 19 H. Wright
- 9 R. Pepi
- 6 A. Trusty
- 18 M. Arfsten
- 25 C. Brady
- 14 S. Berhalter
- 1 M. Turner
- 15 C. Roldan
- 26 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 22 D. Raum
- 13 P. Groß
- 3 W. Anton
- 14 M. Beier
- 1 M. Neuer
- 8 L. Goretzka
- 21 A. Nübel
- 26 D. Undav
- 16 A. Stiller
- 9 J. Leweling
- 20 N. Amiri
- 2 A. Rüdiger
- 24 M. Thiaw
- 11 N. Woltemade
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