Bundesliga
St. Pauli - VfL Wolfsburg
05/16/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
St. Pauli
VfL Wolfsburg
League
The Lab
- 1VfL Wolfsburg: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 2VfL Wolfsburg with Denis Vavro: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3St. Pauli: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 4VfL Wolfsburg: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5VfL Wolfsburg: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
29%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts St. Pauli as slight favorites with a home win probability of 41%
- St. Pauli shows poor form with 0 wins and 4 losses in their last 5 games, while Wolfsburg recorded 1 win and 2 draws
- Both teams are struggling with their current goal production: St. Pauli (0.6 goals) and VfL Wolfsburg (1.0 goals) are below their season average
Risk Factors
- VfL Wolfsburg concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
- St. Pauli averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
St. Pauli (18th place, 26 points) host VfL Wolfsburg (16th place, 26 points) at Millerntor-Stadion. Bundesliga match on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM. Both teams are fighting for survival and are level on points at the bottom of the table.
Form
St. Pauli's form is poor with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses (LDLLL) in their last five games. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Their last match ended in a loss. VfL Wolfsburg shows slightly better form in their last five matches with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses (LWDDL). Their last result was a loss.
Statistics
St. Pauli scores an average of 0.85 goals per game this season and concedes 1.73 goals. At home, they score 0.84 goals and concede 1.47 goals. VfL Wolfsburg scores an average of 1.27 goals per game and concedes 2.06 goals. Away from home, they score 1.24 goals and concede 2.12 goals. St. Pauli recorded 5 clean sheets, Wolfsburg 2. For St. Pauli, 18 games ended with both teams scoring (BTTS), for Wolfsburg 24. At Millerntor-Stadion, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. In 3 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli has 0 wins, VfL Wolfsburg has 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Wolfsburg. The last encounter was won by VfL Wolfsburg on January 14, 2026, away with a score of 2:1.
Key Players
St. Pauli: Jackson Irvine (0 Goals, 1 Assist, Avg. 6.8 Rating), Joel Chima Fujita (1 Goal, 3 Assists, Avg. 6.81 Rating), Hauke Wahl (2 Goals, 1 Assist, Avg. 6.79 Rating). Not nominated: Danel Sinani (5 Goals, 3 Assists).
VfL Wolfsburg: Christian Eriksen (3 Goals, 8 Assists, Avg. 7.02 Rating), Dzenan Pejcinovic (7 Goals, 0 Assists, Avg. 6.77 Rating), Konstantinos Koulierakis (3 Goals, 1 Assist, Avg. 6.76 Rating). Not nominated: Mohamed Amoura (8 Goals, 3 Assists), Patrick Wimmer (4 Goals, 3 Assists), Aaron Zehnter (2 Goals, 0 Assists).
Goalkeepers
St. Pauli's goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj recorded 5 clean sheets this season. Kamil Grabara of VfL Wolfsburg kept 2 clean sheets.
Influences
The match takes place at Millerntor-Stadion on natural grass. St. Pauli scored 16 goals at home and conceded 28 goals. VfL Wolfsburg scored 21 goals away and conceded 36 goals. At Millerntor-Stadion, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. In 3 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals.