Friendly International

United States - Portugal

03/31/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
United States
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Portugal
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
USPOR

United States

Defensive weakness (3.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+1.92
Attack strength (1.66x league average)
+1.09
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.90
Rising form (2.8 vs 2 season average)
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap)
-0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.11
Full strength squad available

Portugal

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.53
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.47
+0.47
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

26%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 41%
  • Form Advantage: The USA have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches, while Portugal recorded a draw in their last game
  • Tactical Strength: The USA show offensive strength with an average of 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Short rest for home team: United States had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Short rest for away team: Portugal had only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Low offensive output for Portugal: Portugal averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last game
Overview

United States host Portugal in a Friendly International match on April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM

The mathematical analysis indicates the USA are slight favorites with a 41% win probability

Form

United States' form in their last five matches is DWWWL

This record includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last result was a 2-5 loss against Belgium

Portugal played a D in their last match

This corresponds to 1 draw

The last result was a 0-0 draw against Mexico

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

United States are currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (2.1)

They averaged 5.0 shots on target with 57.2% possession in their last 5 games

Portugal had 67% possession in their last game, but only averaged 2.0 shots on target

Key Players

For United States, key players include Sebastian Berhalter (2 goals, 3 assists in 5 games, avg 7.69 rating), Auston Trusty (2 goals in 4 games, avg 7.64 rating), and Chris Richards (avg 7.09 rating in 5 games)

For Portugal, Bruno Fernandes (2 goals, 4 assists in 5 games, avg 8.25 rating), Vitinha (1 goal in 5 games, avg 7.38 rating), and Gonçalo Inácio (2 goals in 4 games, avg 7.17 rating) are important

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese (avg 6.76 rating in 4 games) will be in goal for United States

José Sá (avg 7.12 rating in 3 games) is the goalkeeper for Portugal

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