Friendly International
Germany - Finland
05/31/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
Germany
Finland
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
28%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 51% home win probability for Germany
- Offensive Strength: Germany averages 3.0 goals per game this season and recently averaged 7.5 shots on target
- Home Advantage: Germany has a positive goal difference in home games with 2.0 goals scored to 1.0 goal conceded
Risk Factors
- Limited Starting XI Strength: Only 67% of Germany's usual starting XI strength is available
- Historical Record: Both head-to-head matches between Germany and Finland ended in a draw
- Finland's Away Defense: Finland concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per away game
Overview
Germany hosts Finland at the Mewa Arena in a Friendly International match. The encounter will take place on May 31, 2026, at 8:45 PM. It's an opportunity for both nations to test new tactics and players.
Form
Germany is in good form (WW), having won their last two matches, including a 2-1 home win against Ghana and a 4-3 away win against Switzerland. Finland (LWWD) has achieved two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last four games. Their last result was a 1-1 away draw against Cape Verde Islands. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Germany has scored an average of 3.0 goals per game this season and conceded 2.0 goals. At home, their average is 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. Finland has scored an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and conceded only 0.5 goals. Away, Finland's average is 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded. At the Mewa Arena, the last five matches have seen an average of 3.4 goals. Both teams scored in 60% of games, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
There has been no winner in the two previous head-to-head encounters. Both matches ended in a draw, most recently a 1-1 on October 14, 2009. The goal difference is even at 4:4, indicating historical parity.
Key Players
For Germany, Florian Wirtz (2 goals, 2 assists this season), Deniz Undav (1 goal this season, rising form), and Joshua Kimmich (3 assists in the last 5 games) are key players. For Finland, Leo Walta (2 assists this season, 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games), Robin Lod (2 goals in the last 5 games), and Topi Keskinen (1 assist in the last 5 games) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Oliver Baumann is expected to be in goal for Germany. Finland's starting lineup includes goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky. Germany has not kept a clean sheet this season, while Finland has recorded one clean sheet.
Influences
Germany shows a goal difference at home of 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game, suggesting a home advantage. The Mewa Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals per match. 60% of games at this stadium have seen both teams score.