Match report →
Germany – Finland4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Germany
1.63
Total xG
2.60
Finland
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Germany | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.88 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 71 vs 12, 59 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 71, 59 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 20% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 51% home win probability for Germany
- Offensive Strength: Germany averages 3.0 goals per game this season and recently averaged 7.5 shots on target
- Home Advantage: Germany has a positive goal difference in home games with 2.0 goals scored to 1.0 goal conceded
Risks
- Limited Starting XI Strength: Only 67% of Germany's usual starting XI strength is available
- Historical Record: Both head-to-head matches between Germany and Finland ended in a draw
- Finland's Away Defense: Finland concedes an average of only 0.5 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Germany51%
Draw28%
Finland21%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Germany or draw79%
Finland or draw49%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
4:0
Final score
Lineups
Germany 4-2-3-1 · Finland 4-3-3
Germany
- 12 O. Baumann
- 6 J. Kimmich
- 4 J. Tah
- 15 N. Schlotterbeck
- 18 N. Brown
- 23 F. Nmecha
- 5 A. Pavlović
- 25 L. Karl
- 10 J. Musiala
- 17 F. Wirtz
- 26 D. Undav
Finland
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 17 N. Alho
- 4 T. Miettinen
- 21 V. Koski
- 14 R. Mahuta
- 6 L. Walta
- 11 A. Marhiev
- 16 A. Suhonen
- 18 T. Keskinen
- 19 B. Källman
- 8 R. Lod
Substitutes
- 22 D. Raum
- 13 P. Groß
- 3 W. Anton
- 14 M. Beier
- 8 L. Goretzka
- 1 J. Urbig
- 21 A. Nübel
- 16 A. Stiller
- 9 J. Leweling
- 20 N. Amiri
- 2 A. Rüdiger
- 24 M. Thiaw
- 11 N. Woltemade
- 19 L. Sané
- 7 O. Antman
- 23 V. Sinisalo
- 24 O. Jukkola
- 15 S. Miettinen
- 22 D. Håkans
- 9 S. Väänänen
- 25 D. Arifi
- 20 J. Pohjanpalo
- 12 J. Joronen
- 3 N. Pyyhtiä
- 26 C. Terho
- 2 M. Peltola
- 10 N. Skyttä
- 5 M. Tenho
- 13 J. Kilo
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