Friendly International

United States - Senegal

05/31/2026, 07:30 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
United States
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Senegal
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
USSEN

United States

Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.96
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.07
Full strength squad available

Senegal

Attack strength (2.19x league average)
+1.90
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.56
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.15
Ismaïla Sarr not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    United States with Diego Luna: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Senegal with Ismaïla Sarr: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 10 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Senegal: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Senegal: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Senegal's strong offense (2.5 goals/game) meets the USA's vulnerable defense (3.5 goals conceded/game)
  • Senegal's positive form (3 consecutive wins) contrasts with the USA's recent losses
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 67% probability for a home win or a draw
Risk Factors
  • Limited data due to missing head-to-head encounters
  • The USA has a poor record on artificial turf (0 wins, 2 losses, 2:7 goals)
Overview

United States host Senegal in a Friendly International match at Bank of America Stadium on May 31, 2026, 8:30 PM

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The USA's recent form is WWWLL with 3 wins and 2 losses

They have suffered 2 consecutive losses recently

Senegal's form is LLWWW with 3 wins and 2 losses

They have won their last 3 consecutive matches

In their last 5 games, USA lost to Portugal (0-2) and Belgium (2-5)

Prior to that, they secured wins against Uruguay (5-1), Paraguay (2-1), and Australia (2-1)

Senegal won their last 3 matches against Gambia (3-1), Peru (2-0), and Kenya (8-0)

They lost to Brazil (0-2) and Tanzania (1-2)

Statistics

The United States scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 3.5 goals

They have kept 0 clean sheets

Senegal scored an average of 2.5 goals per game and conceded 0.5 goals this season

They have kept 1 clean sheet

Bank of America Stadium sees an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

No data on previous head-to-head encounters between these two teams is available in the provided dataset

Key Players

For the USA, Ricardo Pepi is a key attacker with 1 assist this season and 6 goals in his last 5 games, showing rising form

Sebastian Berhalter, a midfielder, has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, also with rising form

Antonee Robinson, a defender, recorded 1 assist this season and 1 goal in his last 5 games, with rising form

For Senegal, Nicolas Jackson, an attacker, is relevant with 1 season goal and 1 goal in his last 5 games

Lamine Camara, a midfielder, scored 1 goal this season and contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Sadio Mané, an attacker, scored 3 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

For the USA, Matt Turner is the likely goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.57 this season

He has not kept any clean sheets this season

For Senegal, Mory Diaw is the likely goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.91 this season

He has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The USA has a poor record on artificial turf with 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, scoring 2 goals and conceding 7

No specific data is available for Senegal's performance on artificial turf

Bank of America Stadium averages 2.6 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 games

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