Match report →
United States – Senegal3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
United States
1.57
Total xG
3.01
Senegal
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | United States | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.19x league average) | +1.90 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −1.56 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.96 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.07 | |
| Ismaïla Sarr not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Senegal's strong offense (2.5 goals/game) meets the USA's vulnerable defense (3.5 goals conceded/game)
- Senegal's positive form (3 consecutive wins) contrasts with the USA's recent losses
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 67% probability for a home win or a draw
Risks
- Limited data due to missing head-to-head encounters
- The USA has a poor record on artificial turf (0 wins, 2 losses, 2:7 goals)
All probabilities
Result
United States39%
Draw27%
Senegal33%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
United States or draw67%
Senegal or draw61%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- United States with Diego Luna: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Senegal with Ismaïla Sarr: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 10 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- United States: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Senegal: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Senegal: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
United States 3-4-3 · Senegal 3-4-3
United States
- 1 M. Turner
- 16 A. Freeman
- 22 M. McKenzie
- 13 T. Ream
- 2 S. Dest
- 14 S. Berhalter
- 4 T. Adams
- 5 A. Robinson
- 7 G. Reyna
- 9 R. Pepi
- 10 C. Pulisic
Senegal
- 23 M. Diaw
- 15 K. Diatta
- 4 A. Seck
- 2 M. Sarr
- 14 I. Jakobs
- 8 L. Camara
- 27 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
- 13 I. Ndiaye
- 21 M. Diarra
- 10 S. Mané
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 23 J. Scally
- 17 M. Tillman
- 21 T. Weah
- 20 F. Balogun
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 19 H. Wright
- 8 W. McKennie
- 6 A. Trusty
- 18 M. Arfsten
- 25 C. Brady
- 15 C. Roldan
- 24 F. Matthew
- 12 M. Robinson
- 26 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 29 P. Sy
- 9 Bamba Dieng
- 22 M. Mbow
- 26 P. Gueye
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 25 E. Diouf
- 17 P. Sarr
- 12 P. Ndiaye
- 28 I. Camara
- 7 A. Diao Diaoune
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