Match report →
Hungary – Finland2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Hungary
1.46
Total xG
2.24
Finland
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hungary | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.27x league average) | −1.43 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.98 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 71 vs 41, 30 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 41 vs 71, 30 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hungary with a probability of 52%
- Hungary's home defensive strength: At home, Hungary conceded an average of 0.0 goals this season and recorded 2 clean sheets
- Finland's tactical offense: Finland averaged 4.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Hungary's home goal scoring weakness: The team scored an average of only 0.5 goals in home games this season
- Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches are available in the dataset
- Limited data: XG values for Finland's recent matches are partially unavailable
All probabilities
Result
Hungary52%
Draw30%
Finland19%
Double chance
Hungary or draw81%
Finland or draw48%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
14%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
Lineups
Hungary 4-2-3-1 · Finland 4-3-3
Hungary
- 1 P. Szappanos
- 2 A. Osváth
- 3 M. Csinger
- 6 W. Orban
- 11 Milos Kerkez
- 13 A. Schafer
- 8 M. Vitális
- 21 A. Tóth
- 10 D. Szoboszlai
- 20 R. Sallai
- 19 B. Varga
Finland
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 13 R. Jansson
- 21 V. Koski
- 4 T. Miettinen
- 14 R. Mahuta
- 11 A. Marhiev
- 16 A. Suhonen
- 6 L. Walta
- 22 D. Håkans
- 20 J. Pohjanpalo
- 10 N. Skyttä
Substitutes
- 12 ?. Yaakobishvili
- 17 C. Styles
- 22 B. Tóth
- 4 K. Szűcs
- 7 G. Zsombor
- 5 ?. Markgráf
- 16 D. Lukacs
- 18 Z. Nagy
- 15 P. Baráth
- 26 ?. Pécsi
- 23 D. Redzic
- 24 T. Rajmund
- 9 Bendegúz Kovács
- 14 T. Szücs
- 25 N. Szendrei
- 7 O. Antman
- 23 V. Sinisalo
- 18 T. Keskinen
- 24 O. Jukkola
- 15 S. Miettinen
- 9 S. Väänänen
- 25 D. Arifi
- 12 J. Joronen
- 3 N. Pyyhtiä
- 26 C. Terho
- 2 M. Peltola
- 8 R. Lod
- 17 N. Alho
- 19 B. Källman
- 5 M. Tenho
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