Friendly International

Hungary - Finland

06/05/2026, 05:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Hungary
1.5
Total xG
2.2
Finland
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
HUNFIN

Hungary

Attack weakness (0.27x league average)
-1.43
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.98
Standings advantage (pos 41 vs 71, 30 places gap)
+0.10
Full strength squad available

Finland

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.43
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 71 vs 41, 30 places gap)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Hungary with a probability of 52%
  • Hungary's home defensive strength: At home, Hungary conceded an average of 0.0 goals this season and recorded 2 clean sheets
  • Finland's tactical offense: Finland averaged 4.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Hungary's home goal scoring weakness: The team scored an average of only 0.5 goals in home games this season
  • Limited data: No historical head-to-head matches are available in the dataset
  • Limited data: XG values for Finland's recent matches are partially unavailable
Overview

Hungary host Finland at Puskás Aréna for a Friendly International match on June 5, 2026, 7:45 PM

Form

Hungary's last four matches show a form of "LWWD"

Their last game was a 0-0 draw against Greece

Hungary's form summary shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Finland's last five matches show a form of "LWWDL"

The Finns lost their last game 0-4 against Germany

Finland's form summary shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Hungary has scored an average of 0.5 goals per game this season and conceded zero goals per game

Finland has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded 1.67 goals per game

Hungary kept 2 clean sheets, while Finland recorded 1 clean sheet

The venue, Puskás Aréna, has seen an average of 1.25 total goals across 4 games

Both teams scored in 25% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 0% of matches at this venue

Key Players

For Hungary, Barnabás Varga is a key attacker with 2 goals in 176 minutes and an average rating of 7.99 in the last 5 games

Midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai showed strong performance with 1 goal and 3 assists in 482 minutes, achieving a rating of 7.41 in the last 5 games

Defender Willi Orbán contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games and earned a rating of 7.29

For Finland, Leo Walta stands out in midfield, delivering 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 4 games with a rating of 7.21

Attacker Joel Pohjanpalo scored 1 goal in the last 3 games and achieved a rating of 6.77

Naatan Skyttä, also in midfield, scored once in the last 3 games and had a rating of 6.65

Goalkeepers

Hungary's goalkeeper Péter Szappanos contributed to 2 clean sheets this season

Lukas Hradecky, Finland's goalkeeper, recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Puskás Aréna has an average of 1.25 goals per game

At this venue, both teams scored in 25% of matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 0% of matches

Hungary scored an average of 0.5 goals in home games and conceded 0 goals

Finland scored an average of 1.0 goals in away games and conceded 1.67 goals

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