🇩🇪

Bundesliga

FC Bayern München - FC Köln

05/16/2026, 01:30 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.5
Total xG
3.6
FC Köln
1.1
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

7%

2:2

5%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
FBMFK

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (1.68x league average)
+0.77
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (2.6 vs 3.4 season average)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.15
Michael Olise on the bench (15 goals, 19 assists)
Nicolas Jackson on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists)
Josip Stanisic on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Hiroki Ito on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Aleksandar Pavlovic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Min-jae Kim not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

FC Köln

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
Ísak Jóhannesson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
11% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Bayern München: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Köln with Jan Thielmann: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Bayern München: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)

  • 4
    FC Köln: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 5
    FC Bayern München: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

19%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

34%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Bayern München with 66% probability
  • FC Bayern München's strong home record (3.5 home goals per game) meets FC Köln's vulnerable away defense (2.33 goals conceded per away game)
  • FC Bayern München has been possession-dominant in their last 5 matches with an average of 67% possession and 7.0 shots on target
  • FC Köln shows a positive offensive form development in the second half of the season with 1.6 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • FC Köln concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
  • FC Bayern München's goal production recently showed a negative trend, with 2.6 goals below the season average of 3.4 goals
Overview

FC Bayern München (1st place, 86 points) host FC Köln (14th place, 32 points) at the Allianz Arena

Bundesliga match on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM

The league leaders face a team near the relegation zone

Form

FC Bayern München's current form across all competitions is WLDDW

The team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Bayern's goal production recently stalled with an average of 2.6 goals per game, while the season average is 3.4 goals

FC Köln's form across all competitions is WDLDL

They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Köln is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)

Statistics

FC Bayern München scored an average of 3.55 goals per game this season

Their defense conceded an average of 1.06 goals and kept 12 clean sheets

In home games, Bayern averages 3.5 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goals

FC Köln scored an average of 1.45 goals per game this season

They conceded an average of 1.76 goals per game and kept 3 clean sheets

In away games, Köln averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes 2.33 goals

The Allianz Arena averages 5.0 total goals per game

In 4 of the last 5 matches at the stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were registered

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 direct encounters, FC Bayern München dominated

Bayern managed to win all 4 matches

The goal difference in these fixtures is 10:2 in favor of FC Bayern München

The last meeting on January 14, 2026, ended in a 3:1 victory for Bayern

Key Players

FC Bayern München's offense is led by Harry Kane, who scored 33 goals and provided 5 assists this season

Luis Díaz contributed with 15 goals and 13 assists

Leon Goretzka showed stable form recently with 2 goals and 0 assists in 4 games

For FC Köln, Said El Mala is a key factor with 12 goals and 5 assists this season

Marius Bülter scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Eric Martel contributed 1 goal in his last 5 games and shows stable form

Goalkeepers

Manuel Neuer is the goalkeeper for FC Bayern München and recorded 12 clean sheets this season

Marvin Schwäbe is in goal for FC Köln and managed to keep 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

FC Bayern München's home advantage is clear with an average of 3.5 home goals scored and only 1.0 goal conceded per game

The Allianz Arena is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 5.0 goals per game

Furthermore, 4 out of 5 matches at the stadium ended with both teams scoring

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.