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Bundesliga

Werder Bremen - Borussia Dortmund

05/16/2026, 01:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Werder Bremen
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Borussia Dortmund
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
WBBD

Werder Bremen

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.39
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Yukinari Sugawara not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Jovan Milosevic on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Borussia Dortmund

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.57
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.07
Julian Brandt on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Marcel Sabitzer on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Werder Bremen: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Werder Bremen with Jovan Milosevic: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Borussia Dortmund: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Borussia Dortmund with Karim Adeyemi: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.2 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Borussia Dortmund: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a slightly higher home win probability (37%) for Werder Bremen
  • Borussia Dortmund's goal production is declining according to analysis (currently 1.6 goals per game), compared to their season average of 2.1 goals
  • Werder Bremen has a vulnerable home defense, conceding an average of 1.71 goals per home game
Overview

Werder Bremen (15th place, 32 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 70 points) at the Wohninvest Weserstadion

Bundesliga match on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM

The hosts are fighting against relegation, while Dortmund aims to secure Champions League qualification

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Werder Bremen's form across all competitions: LWDLL

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last two matches ended in a loss

Borussia Dortmund's form across all competitions: LLWLW

The visitors achieved 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Dortmund's last match ended in a win

Statistics

Werder Bremen scored an average of 1.12 goals per game this season and conceded 1.76 goals per game

At home, they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per home game

They kept 6 clean sheets

Borussia Dortmund is stronger offensively with an average of 2.06 goals per game and a solid defense with 1.03 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they scored 2.00 goals and conceded 1.29 goals per away game

Borussia Dortmund kept 14 clean sheets

At the Wohninvest Weserstadion, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia Dortmund dominated with 3 wins compared to 0 for Werder Bremen

Two matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 3:8 in favor of Borussia Dortmund

The last encounter was won by Borussia Dortmund away with a score of 3:0 on January 13, 2026

Borussia Dortmund has been more dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Werder Bremen, Romano Schmid shows a rising form trend with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Jens Stage scored 10 goals and 2 assists this season with stable form

Cameron Puertas also contributed to a rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches

For Borussia Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy is the top scorer this season with 16 goals and 2 assists

Julian Ryerson impressed with 15 assists this season

Maximilian Beier showed a rising form with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Werder Bremen's goalkeeper, Mio Backhaus, had 6 clean sheets this season

Gregor Kobel, Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper, recorded 14 clean sheets this season

The visitors have a significantly stronger record in games without conceding a goal

Influences

The Wohninvest Weserstadion saw an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

60% of matches ended with both teams scoring

Werder Bremen scored an average of 1.12 goals and conceded 1.71 goals at home

Borussia Dortmund scored an average of 2.00 goals and conceded 1.29 goals away

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