Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Hamburger SV
05/16/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.6
3.6
1.0
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
8%4:1
5%4:0
5%What influences the xG?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hamburger SV
League
The Lab
- 1Bayer 04 Leverkusen: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Bayer 04 Leverkusen with Nathan Tella: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Hamburger SV with Albert Sambi Lokonga: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Hamburger SV: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
70%
Draw
18%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
30%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- High Home Win Probability: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 70% probability and 2.59 expected home goals
- Offensive-Defensive Matchup: Leverkusen's strong home offense (avg. 2.06 goals) meets Hamburg's vulnerable away defense (avg. 2.58 goals conceded)
- Current Form and Tactics: Leverkusen recently averaged 6.0 shots on target, and Hamburg lost their last three away games
Risk Factors
- Defensive Vulnerability: Hamburger SV conceded an average of 2.58 goals per away game
- Limited Data Availability: Some statistics, such as duel values, are only partially available
Overview
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 58 points) host Hamburger SV (11th place, 37 points) at the BayArena. The Bundesliga match takes place on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM. Leverkusen are fighting for an international spot, while HSV are in mid-table.
Form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen shows solid form with W-L-W-W-L in their last five matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The home team recently achieved a 4-1 victory against RB Leipzig. Hamburger SV displays a form of L-L-L-W-W in their last five games (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). HSV managed to win their last two matches, but previously suffered three consecutive away defeats. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored an average of 2.03 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 1.39 goals. At home, they average 2.06 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded. Hamburger SV scored an average of 1.18 goals per game and conceded 1.61 goals. Away, their defense is more vulnerable with an average of 2.58 goals conceded per match, while their offense scores an average of 1.17 goals. In 21 games for both teams, both teams scored, and in 20 games, over 2.5 goals were scored. At the BayArena, an average of 4.2 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in all 5 recent matches played there.
Head-to-Head
In the 3 direct encounters so far, there have been 2 home wins and 1 away win, with no draws. Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored a total of 3 goals and Hamburger SV scored 4 goals. The last match on March 04, 2026, ended with a 0-1 away win for Bayer 04 Leverkusen against Hamburger SV.
Key Players
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Patrik Schick (16 goals, 3 assists, form rising), Alejandro Grimaldo (8 goals, 8 assists, stable form) and Aleix GarcĂa (3 goals, 7 assists, form rising) are crucial. For Hamburger SV, FĂĄbio Vieira (6 goals, 5 assists, form rising), Luka Vuskovic (6 goals, 0 assists, stable form) and Albert GrĂžnbĂŠk (1 goal, 2 assists, stable form) are the most important players.
Goalkeepers
Mark Flekken is the goalkeeper for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and has made 23 appearances this season. The team has recorded 8 clean sheets. For Hamburger SV, Sander Tangvik is in goal, who has not made any appearances this season. The team has kept 6 clean sheets overall.
Influences
Bayer 04 Leverkusen enjoys a clear home advantage at the BayArena, where they average 2.06 goals scored and concede only 1.0 goal. The venue is known for high-scoring matches with an average of 4.2 goals per game. In all five of the most recent home games, both teams scored.