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Bundesliga

Heidenheim - FSV Mainz 05

05/16/2026, 01:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Heidenheim
1.3
Total xG
2.7
FSV Mainz 05
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
HEIFM0

Heidenheim

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.35
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Full strength squad available

FSV Mainz 05

Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.01
Danny da Costa on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Heidenheim with Luca Kerber: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Heidenheim: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    FSV Mainz 05: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    FSV Mainz 05 with Kacper Potulski: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

29%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Heidenheim's improved form: Heidenheim is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 2.4 goals) and conceding fewer goals (Avg. 1.4) than their season average
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis gives FSV Mainz 05 a slight advantage with a 38% win probability
  • High-scoring matches: The Voith-Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.8 goals per match and 80% BTTS/Over 2.5 in the last five games
Risk Factors
  • Heidenheim's seasonal defensive weakness: Heidenheim conceded an average of 2.12 goals per game over the season
  • Mainz 05's poor away form: In their last five away matches, Mainz 05 only managed one win and one draw, with three losses
Overview

Heidenheim (17th place, 26 points) host FSV Mainz 05 (10th place, 37 points) at the Voith-Arena

Bundesliga match on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM

Heidenheim is fighting relegation and aims to close the gap to safety

Mainz 05 holds a more comfortable mid-table position

Form

Heidenheim's form across all competitions: WLWDW

FSV Mainz 05's form across all competitions: LDLWL

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Heidenheim shows strong recent form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last five matches

The team won their last game

FSV Mainz 05 recorded only 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

Their last result was a loss

Statistics

Heidenheim scores an average of 1.24 goals per game this season and concedes 2.12 goals

At home, Heidenheim averages 1.21 goals scored and 1.84 goals conceded

FSV Mainz 05 scores an average of 1.27 goals per game this season and concedes 1.61 goals

Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded

In Heidenheim's matches, both teams scored in 21 of 33 games

In FSV Mainz 05's matches, both teams scored in 21 of 33 games

Heidenheim is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.2)

FSV Mainz 05 maintains a consistent scoring rate (around 1.4 goals per game)

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams

Both teams have won 2 games each, with 1 match ending in a draw

The goal difference is even with 5 goals for Heidenheim and 5 goals for FSV Mainz 05

The last encounter on January 13, 2026, was won by FSV Mainz 05 with a score of 2:1

Key Players

For Heidenheim, Budu Zivzivadze, Arijon Ibrahimovic, and Jan Schöppner are key players

Budu Zivzivadze scored 6 goals in the season and contributed 5 goals in the last 5 games, with his rating rising to 7.44

Arijon Ibrahimovic scored 2 season goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.46

Jan Schöppner scored 3 season goals and 3 assists, with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games and a rating of 7.07

For FSV Mainz 05, Nadiem Amiri, Sheraldo Becker, and Paul Nebel are noteworthy

Nadiem Amiri scored 11 season goals and 2 assists, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Sheraldo Becker scored 3 season goals and 3 assists, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Paul Nebel scored 5 season goals and 2 assists, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Heidenheim's goalkeeper Frank Feller has made 2 appearances this season

Heidenheim's team has achieved 1 clean sheet in 33 games

FSV Mainz 05's goalkeeper Daniel Batz has made 20 appearances this season

FSV Mainz 05's team has achieved 3 clean sheets in 33 games

Influences

The Voith-Arena in Heidenheim is a venue known for high-scoring matches

In the last 5 games, an average of 4.8 goals were scored per match

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were seen in 4 out of 5 matches

Heidenheim scores an average of 1.21 goals at home and concedes 1.84 goals

FSV Mainz 05 scores 1.24 goals away and concedes 1.65 goals

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