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Bundesliga

FC Union Berlin - FC Augsburg

05/16/2026, 01:30 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
FC Union Berlin
1.5
Total xG
2.7
FC Augsburg
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FUBFA

FC Union Berlin

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Rani Khedira not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Leopold Querfeld on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 97% available)

FC Augsburg

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.24
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.24
Alexis Claude-Maurice not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
Dimitrios Giannoulis not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Han-Noah Massengo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Arthur Chaves not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Union Berlin: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    FC Union Berlin: 89% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    FC Union Berlin with András Schäfer: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Union Berlin: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Union Berlin: 60% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Union Berlin with a 43% probability, while a draw stands at 29%
  • FC Augsburg shows strong current form with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 games
  • Tactical analysis highlights Augsburg's offensive strength with an average of 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • FC Augsburg concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
Overview

FC Union Berlin (12th place, 36 points) host FC Augsburg (9th place, 43 points) at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Bundesliga match on May 16, 2026, 3:30 PM

Union Berlin aims to improve their mid-table position, while Augsburg could look towards Europe

Form

FC Union Berlin shows a form of LLLDW in their last five games across all competitions

This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with one consecutive win

FC Augsburg has a form of DWDWW

This corresponds to 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with two consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Union Berlin averages 1.21 goals scored per game and concedes 1.76 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 21 of FC Union Berlin's games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 games

FC Augsburg averages 1.36 goals scored per game and concedes 1.73 goals per game this season

Away from home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.93 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 21 of FC Augsburg's games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Augsburg recorded 2 wins, FC Union Berlin 1 win, and there were 2 draws

FC Augsburg scored 7 goals, while FC Union Berlin scored 4 goals

The last encounter on January 15, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

FC Augsburg has been more dominant in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For FC Union Berlin: Andrej Ilic (Attacker, 3 goals, 10 assists this season, 1 goal, 2 assists in last 5 games, form trend rising)

Oliver Burke (Attacker, 6 goals, 1 assist this season, 2 goals in last 5 games, form trend stable)

Danilho Doekhi (Defender, 5 goals this season, 1 goal in last 5 games, form trend stable)

Not nominated for FC Union Berlin: Rani Khedira (5G/1A), Leopold Querfeld (3G/0A)

For FC Augsburg: Fabian Rieder (Midfielder, 6 goals, 3 assists this season, 2 goals in last 5 games, form trend rising)

Michael Gregoritsch (Attacker, 6 goals, 2 assists this season, 3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, form trend rising)

Anton Kade (Midfielder, 6 goals this season, 3 goals in last 5 games, form trend rising)

Not nominated for FC Augsburg: Alexis Claude-Maurice (5G/5A), Dimitrios Giannoulis (2G/5A), Han-Noah Massengo (2G/1A), Arthur Chaves (2G/0A)

Goalkeepers

FC Union Berlin has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Carl Klaus, the current goalkeeper, has featured in 3 games

First-choice goalkeeper Frederik Rønnow (30 appearances) is injured

FC Augsburg has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Finn Dahmen, the goalkeeper, has played in 33 games

Influences

The Stadion An der Alten Försterei is known for an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games

Union Berlin scored an average of 1.22 goals at home and conceded 1.44 goals

The playing surface is grass

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