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Pro League

Al Nassr - Al Najma

04/03/2026, 06:00 PM

5 : 2
Expected Goals
Al Nassr
2.6
Total xG
3.1
Al Najma
0.5
Most Likely Scores

2:0

15%

3:0

13%

4:0

8%

2:1

8%

1:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ANAN

Al Nassr

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+1.23
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.85
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (3.6 vs 2.7 season average)
+0.26
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap)
+0.18
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
JoĂŁo FĂ©lix not in squad (15 goals, 11 assists)
Kingsley Coman not in squad (7 goals, 10 assists)
Nawaf Boushal on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Iñigo Martínez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

Al Najma

Attack weakness (0.37x league average)
-1.25
Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+1.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap)
-0.09
LĂĄzaro not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Bilal Boutobba not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.53
+0.53
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

15%

Away Win

5%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

95%

Away or Draw

19%

No Draw

85%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Clear favorite role for Al Nassr with a home win probability of 81%
  • Al Nassr has won five consecutive games, while Al Najma has suffered five consecutive losses
  • Statistical dominance of Al Nassr, scoring an average of 2.75 goals at home, while Al Najma concedes 3.33 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Al Nassr has only 67% of its usual starting XI strength, with JoĂŁo FĂ©lix (15G/11A), Kingsley Coman (7G/10A), Nawaf Boushal (0G/4A), and Iñigo MartĂ­nez (3G/0A) not selected
  • Al Najma averaged 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Al Nassr (1st place, 67 points) host Al Najma (18th place, 8 points) in the Pro League on April 3, 2026, 9:00 PM

Al Nassr aims to maintain its lead at the top of the table, while Al Najma battles against relegation

Form

Al Nassr is in excellent form with five consecutive wins (WWWWW)

Al Nassr's last five matches resulted in victories, including a 5-0 against Al Khaleej and a 5-0 against Al Najma

Al Najma, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis, losing all of their last five matches (LLLLL)

Al Najma's recent defeats include a 1-3 against Damac FC and a 0-5 against Al Nassr

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Nassr shows strong offensive capabilities with an average of 2.73 goals per game this season

Al Nassr's home strength is remarkable with 2.75 home goals per game and only 0.67 goals conceded

Al Najma, in contrast, has a season average of 0.88 goals and concedes an average of 2.35 goals

Al Najma's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding 3.33 goals per game

Al Nassr achieved 14 clean sheets this season, while Al Najma only managed 2

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head encounter between the two teams so far

Al Nassr won this match with a score of 5-0

The last match took place on February 25, 2026, with Al Nassr winning 5-0 as the home team

Key Players

For Al Nassr, Cristiano Ronaldo is important with 21 season goals and 2 assists, holding an average rating of 7.56

Sadio Mané contributed 7 goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.44

Ângelo shows a rising form trend with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

For Al Najma, Wanderson Felippe Cardoso dos Santos is a key player with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Rakan Al-Tulayhi recorded 3 goals and 3 assists this season, but his form is declining

David Tijanic has scored 2 goals and 2 assists this season, also showing a declining form

Goalkeepers

Al Nassr has Bento as their starting goalkeeper

Al Najma relies on Victor Braga in goal

Al Nassr's team has achieved 14 clean sheets this season

Al Najma's team managed 2 clean sheets

Influences

Al Nassr is offensively strong at home with an average of 2.75 home goals per game and a stable defense conceding 0.67 home goals

Al Najma's away defense is weak, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per game

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