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Pro League

Al Riyadh - Al Shabab

04/05/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Al Riyadh
1.1
Total xG
2.4
Al Shabab
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

10%

1:2

8%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ARAS

Al Riyadh

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.69
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
11% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Strong home record (1.2 vs 1 goals/match)

Al Shabab

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.29
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.29
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.26
12% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.54
+0.54
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

31%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Al Shabab is a slight favorite with a 39% win probability according to mathematical analysis and historically dominated Al Riyadh with 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 head-to-head matches
  • Al Shabab demonstrates stronger recent form (WWLDW) and a positive trend in goal production, averaging 2.4 goals in recent games compared to their season average of 1.4 goals
  • Al Shabab averaged 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a strong offensive orientation
Risk Factors
  • Absences for Al Shabab: M. Essa Harbush (Cruciate Ligament Tear), C. Carvalho da Silva Junior (Injury To Abdominal Muscles)
Overview

Al Riyadh (16th place, 19 points) host Al Shabab (12th place, 29 points) in the Pro League. The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 9:00 PM. Al Riyadh is fighting relegation, while Al Shabab is in the mid-table.

Form

Al Riyadh's form in the last 5 games is WLLLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Al Shabab is in better shape with WWLDW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). According to advanced statistics, both teams show a positive recent form trend.

Statistics

Al Riyadh scores an average of 0.93 goals per home game and concedes 1.20 goals. Al Shabab scores an average of 1.33 goals per away game and concedes 1.67 goals. Both teams scored in 17 of Al Riyadh's games and 14 of Al Shabab's games. There were 13 of Al Riyadh's games and 10 of Al Shabab's games with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 0 wins for Al Riyadh, 4 wins for Al Shabab, and 1 draws. The goal difference is 5:11 in favor of Al Shabab. The last encounter on February 23, 2026, 10:00 PM ended 1:3 for away.

Key Players

Al Riyadh: Leandro Antunes (Attacker) recorded 4 season goals and 0 assists with a rating of 7.33; Tozé (Midfielder) recorded 6 season goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.15; Teddy Okou (Attacker) recorded 1 season goal and 5 assists with a rating of 6.86. Al Shabab: Yannick Carrasco (Attacker) recorded 15 season goals and 6 assists with a rating of 7.71; Abderrazak Hamdallah (Attacker) recorded 4 season goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.87; Josh Brownhill (Midfielder) recorded 5 season goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.94.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Milan Borjan of Al Riyadh recorded 2 clean sheets in 26 appearances. For Al Shabab, goalkeeper Marcelo Grohe kept 7 clean sheets in 25 appearances.

Influences

Al Riyadh scores an average of 0.93 goals at home and concedes 1.20 goals. Al Shabab scores an average of 1.33 goals away and concedes 1.67 goals. No data on specific venue or weather conditions is available.

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