Pro League
Al Ahli - Damac FC
04/04/2026, 04:15 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.0
0.6
2:0
14%3:0
11%2:1
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Al Ahli
Damac FC
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
75%
Draw
18%
Away Win
7%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
93%
Away or Draw
25%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high home win probability of 75% for Al Ahli
- Al Ahli's strong home record with an average of 2.0 goals scored meets Damac FC's away defensive vulnerability of 1.92 goals conceded
- Al Ahli dominated Damac FC in head-to-head matches with 4 wins out of 5 games and shows convincing overall form
Risk Factors
- Damac FC concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game, indicating a defensive weakness
- Al Ahli will be without four key players: Valentin Atangana, Ali Majrashi, Franck Kessié, and Zakaria Hawsawi
- Al Ahli lost their last game against Al-Qadsiah (2:3), which interrupted their previous winning streak
Overview
Al Ahli (3rd place, 62 points) host Damac FC (15th place, 22 points) in the Pro League on April 4, 2026, 6:15 PM
Al Ahli aims to solidify their high league position and close the gap to the top
Damac FC needs to collect important points in the relegation battle
Form
Al Ahli shows strong form with "WWWWL" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from their last five matches
They recorded 4 wins and 1 loss
Damac FC's form is inconsistent with "LLDWW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from their last five matches
They achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games
Statistics
Al Ahli is offensively strong with an average of 1.96 goals per game and concedes only 0.73 goals on average
At home, they score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 0.75 goals
Damac FC's offense scores only 0.92 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.62 goals
Away from home, Damac FC concedes significantly more, with an average of 1.92 goals per game
Al Ahli kept 14 clean sheets this season, Damac FC only 4
Both teams scored in 12 of Al Ahli's games, and in 17 of Damac FC's matches
Head-to-Head
In the five direct encounters in the past, Al Ahli dominated with 4 wins, while Damac FC recorded no wins
One match ended in a draw
Al Ahli scored 13 goals compared to 5 conceded goals
The last encounter on February 23, 2026, saw Al Ahli win 1:0 away
Key Players
For Al Ahli, Ivan Toney (25 season goals, 5 assists), Riyad Mahrez (4 season goals, 7 assists), and Galeno (1 season goal, 6 assists) are decisive offensive players
Toney has shown stable form recently with 6 goals in 5 games
Mahrez's form trend is slightly declining, while Galeno is performing stably and contributed 3 assists in his last 5 games
For Damac FC, Valentín Vada (9 season goals, 3 assists), Yakou Méïté (4 season goals, 0 assists), and Abdulrahman Al-Obaid (0 season goals, 4 assists) stand out
Vada is in rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, as is Méïté with 3 goals
Al-Obaid also showed a rising form with 2 assists in 4 games
Goalkeepers
For Al Ahli, Edouard Mendy (19 appearances, Avg. 6.84 rating) is in goal, whose team has recorded 14 clean sheets this season
For Damac FC, Kewin (26 appearances, Avg. 6.79 rating) is the goalkeeper, his team kept a clean sheet 4 times this season
Influences
Al Ahli has a clear home advantage, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded in home games
Damac FC is defensively more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.92 goals per away game