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Pro League

Al Najma - Al Taawoun

04/23/2026, 04:10 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Al Najma
0.7
Total xG
2.0
Al Taawoun
1.3
Most Likely Scores

0:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

0:2

11%

1:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ANAT

Al Najma

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.08
Defensive weakness (2.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.97
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 5, 13 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.05
David Tijanic not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Al Taawoun

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-0.33
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 18, 13 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.8 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.54
+0.54
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Al Najma: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Al Najma with Abdulaziz Al-Harabi: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Al Taawoun: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Al Taawoun: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

32%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • League Position: Al Taawoun sits in 5th place with 46 points, while Al Najma is last with only 11 points
  • Pipeline Prediction: The model forecasts an away win with approximately 48% probability and 1.28 expected away goals
  • Offensive Efficiency: Al Taawoun scores an average of 1.79 goals per game this season, compared to Al Najma's 0.96 goals
Risk Factors
  • Al Najma's Offensive Weakness: Al Najma recorded an average of 3.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches
  • Al Najma's Defense: Al Najma concedes an average of 1.78 goals per home game
Overview

Al Najma (18th place, 11 points) hosts Al Taawoun (5th place, 46 points) in the Pro League on April 23, 2026, 5:10 PM

Al Taawoun enters the match as clear favorites and is fighting for a top spot in the league

Al Najma is at the bottom of the table and battling against relegation

Form

Al Najma's current form is LLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five matches

Al Najma won their last game 2-1 against NEOM SC

Al Taawoun's form is DWDDL

This translates to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five encounters

In their last match, Al Taawoun lost 1-2 against Al Kholood

Statistics

Al Najma scored an average of 0.96 goals per game this season and conceded 2.39 goals

At home, Al Najma's goal average is 0.94 goals, while they conceded 1.78 goals

For Al Najma, 19 games ended with both teams scoring and 20 games with over 2.5 goals

Al Taawoun scored an average of 1.79 goals per game and conceded 1.32 goals

Away, Al Taawoun's goal average is 1.77 goals, and they conceded 1.38 goals

For Al Taawoun, both teams scored in 18 games, and 15 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between Al Najma and Al Taawoun so far

Al Taawoun won this single match, while Al Najma remained winless

The goal difference is 1:0 in favor of Al Taawoun

The last encounter took place on December 29, 2025, which Al Taawoun won 1-0

Key Players

For Al Najma, Wanderson Felippe Cardoso dos Santos is a key player, having scored 2 goals and provided 3 assists in his last 5 games, with rising form (season: 3 goals, 4 assists)

LƔzaro contributed 6 goals and 1 assist this season, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 games, his form is stable

Bilal Boutobba scored 1 goal in his last 5 games (season: 3 goals, 2 assists), his form is stable

David Tijanic, who contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season, is not nominated

For Al Taawoun, Roger MartĆ­nez is the top scorer with 20 season goals and 2 assists, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games with stable form

Angelo Fulgini showed 3 goals and 9 assists this season, with 1 assist in the last 5 games and declining form

Mohammed Al-Kuwaykibi recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games (season: 3 goals, 6 assists), his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Al Najma's goalkeeper, Victor Braga, kept 2 clean sheets in 26 appearances

Mailson, Al Taawoun's goalkeeper, kept 6 clean sheets in 27 appearances

Influences

Al Najma showed an offensive performance of an average of 0.94 goals at home and a defense that conceded 1.78 goals

Al Taawoun scored an average of 1.77 goals away and conceded 1.38 goals

No data on venue history or weather is available

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