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Damac FC – Al Okhdoud2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Damac FC
1.49
Total xG
2.42
Al Okhdoud
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Damac FC | Al Okhdoud |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.76 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Abdulaziz Al-Hatila on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Saleh Al-Abbas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Damac FC with a 49% probability and 1.49 expected goals
- Al Akhdoud's away defense appears vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per away game
- Damac FC has secured 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 direct encounters against Al Akhdoud
Risks
- Al Akhdoud averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Limited data available for venue history and weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
Damac FC49%
Draw29%
Al Okhdoud22%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Damac FC or draw78%
Al Okhdoud or draw51%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Al Akhdoud with Muath Fagihy: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Al Akhdoud: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Damac FC with Jamal Harkass: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Damac FC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Damac FC 4-3-3 · Al Okhdoud 4-4-2
Damac FC
- 1 K. Oliveira Silva
- 12 A. Sanousi Mohammed
- 15 J. Harkass
- 3 A. Bedrane
- 13 A. Al Obaid
- 2 M. Sylla
- 6 T. Mohammed
- 8 V. Vada
- 11 Y. Meïté
- 99 A. Sampaio Galvão
- 14 J. Okita
Al Okhdoud
- 94 S. Portugal Lima
- 8 H. Al Zabdani
- 4 S. Al Yami
- 22 K. Günter
- 42 M. Muath
- 55 M. Borrell
- 18 J. Pedroza Perdomo
- 17 G. Gül
- 7 K. Narey
- 13 C. Mougang Bassogog
- 99 K. Al-Lazam
Substitutes
- 5 H. Rabea
- 20 D. Al Anazi
- 22 A. bin Talal Abdulaziz Al Khaibari
- 26 R. Sharahili
- 80 Y. Naji
- 88 K. Al Samiri
- 90 H. Al-Ghamdi
- 18 N. Alsadi
- 30 N. Al Ghamdi
- 1 R. Najjar
- 10 M. Al Jahif
- 12 A. Al Hatila
- 14 S. Al Abbas
- 15 N. Asiri
- 20 S. Al Harthi
- 98 M. Alqaydhi
- 21 M. Abo Abd
- 11 B. İnce
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