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Pro League

Al Ittihad - NEOM SC

04/08/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 4
Expected Goals
Al Ittihad
1.1
Total xG
2.1
NEOM SC
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

12%

0:1

11%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
AINS

Al Ittihad

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.34
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Moussa Diaby not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)
Mahamadou Doumbia  not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

NEOM SC

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.05
Alexandre Lacazette not in squad (11 goals, 4 assists)
Nathan Zézé not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 69% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.53
+0.53
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

34%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Al Ittihad is positioned 6th in the table with 45 points, while NEOM SC is 8th with 36 points
  • The mathematical analysis predicts the highest probability for a home win by Al Ittihad at 36%
  • Al Ittihad won the only head-to-head match against NEOM SC with a score of 3-1
Risk Factors
  • NEOM SC is missing Alexandre Lacazette (11 goals, 4 assists) and Nathan Zézê (2 goals, 1 assist), which means only 70% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available
  • Both teams show a declining goal production according to Advanced Stats, Al Ittihad (1.0 goals) and NEOM SC (1.0 goals) are below their season averages (1.6 and 1.2)
Overview

Al Ittihad (6th place, 45 points) host NEOM SC (8th place, 36 points) in the Pro League. The match takes place on April 8, 2026, 9:00 PM. Al Ittihad aims to defend its position in the upper half of the table

Form

Al Ittihad's form in the last 5 matches is DWLLW with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Al Ittihad recently won 1-0 against Al Hazm

NEOM SC's form in the last 5 matches is DLLDW, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

NEOM SC recently won 1-0 against Al-Fayha

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Ittihad has scored an average of 1.56 goals per game and conceded 1.26 goals per game this season

At home, Al Ittihad scores an average of 1.6 goals and concedes 1.1 goals

NEOM SC has scored an average of 1.19 goals per game and conceded 1.33 goals per game this season

Away from home, NEOM SC scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 1.15 goals

For Al Ittihad, both teams scored in 15 games and there were over 2.5 goals in 12 games

For NEOM SC, both teams scored in 16 games and there were over 2.5 goals in 14 games

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these teams so far

Al Ittihad won this match on December 31, 2025, away with a score of 3-1 against NEOM SC

Key Players

For Al Ittihad, Muhannad Shanqeeti (3 goals, 6 assists), Steven Bergwijn (5 goals, 2 assists), and Houssem Aouar (3 goals, 3 assists) are important

Muhannad Shanqeeti shows stable form with an average of 0.16 goals per 90 minutes this season

Steven Bergwijn has a declining form, with 0 goals in the last 5 matches

Houssem Aouar has a declining form, but contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 matches

For NEOM SC, Saïd Benrahma (5 goals, 6 assists), Luciano Rodríguez (5 goals, 1 assist), and Abdoulaye Doucouré (0 goals, 2 assists) are noteworthy

Saïd Benrahma shows stable form, with 3 assists in the last 5 matches

Luciano Rodríguez has a rising form and scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches

Abdoulaye Doucouré shows stable form and contributed 1 assist in the last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

For Al Ittihad, Predrag Rajković starts, who achieved 7 clean sheets this season

For NEOM SC, Luís Maximiano starts, who achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Luís Maximiano shows a rising form

Influences

Al Ittihad scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.1 goals in home games

NEOM SC scored an average of 1.23 goals and conceded 1.15 goals in away games

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