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Pro League

Al-Qadsiah - Al Shabab

04/14/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Al-Qadsiah
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Al Shabab
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AL-AS

Al-Qadsiah

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.06
Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat not in squad (0 goals, 7 assists)
Julian Weigl not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

Al Shabab

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.07
Josh Brownhill not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Al-Qadsiah's strong home record with an average of 2.36 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per home game
  • The mathematical analysis favors Al-Qadsiah with a home win probability of 55%
  • Al Shabab shows offensive strength in the last 5 games with an average of 7.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Al-Qadsiah conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game recently, compared to 1.07 on season average
  • Al Shabab shows a positive attacking form trend, with an average of 2.33 expected goals (xG) in recent games versus 1.48 on season average
Overview

Al-Qadsiah (4th place, 61 points) host Al Shabab (12th place, 30 points) in the Pro League on April 14, 2026, 8:00 PM

The home team aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table

Al Shabab seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone and collect more points

Form

Al-Qadsiah's last five games show a form of DWWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last match ended in a draw

Al Shabab has a form of WLDWD in their last five matches

They achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last game also ended in a draw

Statistics

Al-Qadsiah has scored an average of 2.32 goals per game this season and conceded 1.04 goals

At home, they are particularly strong with an average of 2.36 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

They kept 8 clean sheets, 6 of which were at home

Both teams scored in 19 games, and 19 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Al Shabab averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per match

Away from home, their average is 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per away game

They recorded 7 clean sheets this season, with 3 coming in away matches

15 games saw both teams score, and 10 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Al-Qadsiah secured 2 wins, while Al Shabab won 1 game

There have been no draws between the two teams

Al-Qadsiah scored a total of 6 goals, compared to Al Shabab's 5 goals

Al-Qadsiah won the last encounter on December 31, 2025, with a score of 3:2

Key Players

For Al-Qadsiah, Julián Quiñones with 26 goals and 2 assists, and Mateo Retegui with 15 goals are crucial

Musab Al-Juwayr contributed 3 goals and 10 assists

Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat (0G/7A) and Julian Weigl (1G/3A) are not nominated, representing 92% of the usual starting eleven strength

For Al Shabab, Yannick Carrasco stands out with 15 goals and 6 assists

Abderrazak Hamdallah scored 5 goals and 1 assist, Saad Balobaid 1 goal and 4 assists

Josh Brownhill (5G/2A) is not nominated, which means 84% of the usual starting eleven strength

Goalkeepers

Koen Casteels guards the goal for Al-Qadsiah, having played 26 games with an average rating of 6.95

Al-Qadsiah achieved 8 clean sheets, 6 of which were in home games

Marcelo Grohe was in goal for Al Shabab in 26 games, achieving an average rating of 6.72

Al Shabab kept 7 clean sheets, 3 of them in away matches

Influences

Al-Qadsiah's home strength is evident with an average of 2.36 goals scored and only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

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