Pro League
Al Ettifaq - Al Riyadh
04/09/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%0:0
10%1:0
9%2:1
9%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Al Ettifaq
Al Riyadh
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Al Ettifaq with a 40% probability and a home win or draw with 70%
- Al Ettifaq (7th place) has a significantly better league position and season goal difference compared to Al Riyadh (16th place)
- Al Riyadh concedes an average of 2.82 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Al Ettifaq's recent goal-scoring form (averaging 1.0 goals) is below their season average (1.44 goals)
- Al Ettifaq registered an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Al Riyadh's average expected goals in recent matches (1.75) are higher than their season average (1.15)
Overview
Al Ettifaq (7th place, 42 points) host Al Riyadh (16th place, 20 points)
Pro League match on April 9, 2026, 8:00 PM
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 40% probability
Form
Home team Al Ettifaq shows a form of LLDLW in their last five matches
This consists of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Their last result was a 3-2 victory against Al-Qadsiah
Al Riyadh's form in the last five games is LLLWD
This includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
They drew 1-1 against Al Shabab in their last match
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Al Ettifaq averages 1.44 goals scored per game and concedes 1.70 goals
At home, Al Ettifaq scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.25 goals
They kept 7 clean sheets this season
Al Riyadh's season average is 0.96 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Al Riyadh scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 2.82 goals
They recorded 2 clean sheets
The mathematical analysis predicts 1.35 goals for Al Ettifaq and 1.15 goals for Al Riyadh
A "Both Teams To Score" scenario is calculated with a 52% probability
A match with over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Al Ettifaq secured 3 wins and Al Riyadh achieved 1 win
There was also 1 draw between the two teams
Al Ettifaq scored a total of 4 goals, while Al Riyadh scored 1 goal
The last encounter was won by Al Ettifaq with a 2-0 score on December 25, 2025
Statistics indicate Al Ettifaq has been the dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For Al Ettifaq, Georginio Wijnaldum (Midfielder) is a key player with 13 season goals and 5 assists
In his last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 6.62
Khalid Al-Ghannam (Attacker) contributed 9 goals and 4 assists this season
Ălvaro MedrĂĄn (Midfielder) impressed with 0 season goals and 5 assists, including 2 assists in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.20
For Al Riyadh, Tozé (Midfielder) is crucial with 7 goals and 4 assists this season
He scored 2 goals in his last 5 games and holds an average rating of 7.30
Leandro Antunes (Attacker) contributed 4 season goals, with 2 goals in his last 5 matches
Teddy Okou (Attacker) provided 1 goal and 5 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Marek RodĂĄk for Al Ettifaq has featured in 27 games and achieved 7 clean sheets
Milan Borjan for Al Riyadh played in 27 games and managed 2 clean sheets
Influences
Al Ettifaq shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.44 home goals scored and 1.25 home goals conceded
Al Riyadh scores an average of 1.00 goal away and concedes 2.82 goals, indicating vulnerability when traveling