🇾🇩

Pro League

Al Ettifaq - Al Riyadh

04/09/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Al Ettifaq
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Al Riyadh
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
AEAR

Al Ettifaq

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.44
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap)
+0.06

Al Riyadh

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.01
10% of goal output missing (only 93% available)

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Al Ettifaq with a 40% probability and a home win or draw with 70%
  • Al Ettifaq (7th place) has a significantly better league position and season goal difference compared to Al Riyadh (16th place)
  • Al Riyadh concedes an average of 2.82 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Al Ettifaq's recent goal-scoring form (averaging 1.0 goals) is below their season average (1.44 goals)
  • Al Ettifaq registered an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • Al Riyadh's average expected goals in recent matches (1.75) are higher than their season average (1.15)
Overview

Al Ettifaq (7th place, 42 points) host Al Riyadh (16th place, 20 points)

Pro League match on April 9, 2026, 8:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 40% probability

Form

Home team Al Ettifaq shows a form of LLDLW in their last five matches

This consists of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their last result was a 3-2 victory against Al-Qadsiah

Al Riyadh's form in the last five games is LLLWD

This includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

They drew 1-1 against Al Shabab in their last match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Ettifaq averages 1.44 goals scored per game and concedes 1.70 goals

At home, Al Ettifaq scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.25 goals

They kept 7 clean sheets this season

Al Riyadh's season average is 0.96 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Al Riyadh scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 2.82 goals

They recorded 2 clean sheets

The mathematical analysis predicts 1.35 goals for Al Ettifaq and 1.15 goals for Al Riyadh

A "Both Teams To Score" scenario is calculated with a 52% probability

A match with over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Al Ettifaq secured 3 wins and Al Riyadh achieved 1 win

There was also 1 draw between the two teams

Al Ettifaq scored a total of 4 goals, while Al Riyadh scored 1 goal

The last encounter was won by Al Ettifaq with a 2-0 score on December 25, 2025

Statistics indicate Al Ettifaq has been the dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For Al Ettifaq, Georginio Wijnaldum (Midfielder) is a key player with 13 season goals and 5 assists

In his last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 6.62

Khalid Al-Ghannam (Attacker) contributed 9 goals and 4 assists this season

Álvaro Medrån (Midfielder) impressed with 0 season goals and 5 assists, including 2 assists in his last 5 games with a rating of 7.20

For Al Riyadh, Tozé (Midfielder) is crucial with 7 goals and 4 assists this season

He scored 2 goals in his last 5 games and holds an average rating of 7.30

Leandro Antunes (Attacker) contributed 4 season goals, with 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Teddy Okou (Attacker) provided 1 goal and 5 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Marek RodĂĄk for Al Ettifaq has featured in 27 games and achieved 7 clean sheets

Milan Borjan for Al Riyadh played in 27 games and managed 2 clean sheets

Influences

Al Ettifaq shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.44 home goals scored and 1.25 home goals conceded

Al Riyadh scores an average of 1.00 goal away and concedes 2.82 goals, indicating vulnerability when traveling

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.