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Pro League

Al Okhdoud - Al Nassr

04/11/2026, 06:00 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Al Okhdoud
0.6
Total xG
3.3
Al Nassr
2.7
Most Likely Scores

0:2

14%

0:3

12%

0:4

8%

1:2

8%

1:3

7%
What influences the xG?
AOAN

Al Okhdoud

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-1.34
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.57
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 1, 16 places gap)
-0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.04
Saleh Al-Abbas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Al Nassr

Attack strength (1.66x league average)
+1.56
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.66
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.30
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 17, 16 places gap)
+0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Abdullah Al-Hamdan on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Iñigo Martínez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (2.2 vs 2.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.56
+0.56
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

5%

Draw

14%

Away Win

81%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

19%

Away or Draw

95%

No Draw

86%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 81% probability and 2.70 expected goals for Al Nassr
  • Al Nassr is in excellent form with five consecutive wins, while Al Akhdoud has only two wins in their last five games
  • Al Nassr dominated all 5 head-to-head matches with a goal difference of 21:3 and shows offensive strength with an average of 9.8 shots on target according to tactical metrics
Overview

Al Akhdoud (17th place, 16 points) host Al Nassr (1st place, 70 points) in the Pro League

The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 8:00 PM

Al Nassr is fighting for the top spot, while Al Akhdoud battles relegation

Form

Al Akhdoud's form across all competitions: LWLLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses) with a win in their last match

Al Nassr shows perfect form: WWWWW (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses) and is unbeaten in their last five games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Al Akhdoud scores an average of 0.85 goals per game and concedes 2.11 goals

They kept 3 clean sheets this season

In 14 matches, both teams scored, and 15 games had over 2.5 goals

At home, Al Akhdoud averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.78 goals conceded

Al Nassr is offensively strong with an average of 2.81 goals per game and a solid defense with 0.78 goals conceded

They achieved 14 clean sheets

Away from home, Al Nassr averages 2.92 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters so far, there has been no draw

Al Nassr won all 5 matches against Al Akhdoud

The goal difference of 21:3 highlights Al Nassr's dominance in these games

The last meeting on December 27, 2025, ended with a 3:0 victory for Al Nassr

Key Players

For Al Akhdoud, Christian Bassogog (3 goals, 6 assists, rating 6.9), Abdulaziz Al-Hatila (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.74), and Khaled Narey (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.7) are key players

Christian Bassogog is stable with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Abdulaziz Al-Hatila shows rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist

For Al Nassr, João Félix (15 goals, 11 assists, rating 7.87), Cristiano Ronaldo (23 goals, 2 assists, rating 7.58), and Kingsley Coman (7 goals, 10 assists, rating 7.36) stand out

João Félix is in stable form with 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 games

Cristiano Ronaldo scored 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances

Goalkeepers

Samuel Portugal is Al Akhdoud's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 6.99

Al Akhdoud has finished 3 games with clean sheets this season

On the other side, Bento is Al Nassr's goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.92

Al Nassr recorded an impressive 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Al Akhdoud scores an average of 0.83 goals at home and concedes 1.78 goals

Al Nassr, on the other hand, excels away from home with an average of 2.92 goals scored and only 0.85 goals conceded

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