Major League Soccer
New York RB - Cincinnati
04/04/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.2
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
New York RB
Cincinnati
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
25%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Pipeline's Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees New York RB as favorites for a home win with 48%
- Home Strength in Possession and Shots: New York RB showed an average of 7.2 shots on target with 61% possession in the last 5 games
- Cincinnati's Away Defense: Cincinnati conceded 7.0 goals in their only away game, indicating extreme defensive vulnerability
Risk Factors
- New York RB's Home Deficiencies: In home games, the team conceded an average of 3.0 goals per game
- Cincinnati's Weak Away Defense: The team conceded an average of 7.0 goals per game in its only away match
Overview
New York RB (8th place, 7 points) host Cincinnati (9th place, 6 points) at Sports Illustrated Stadium
Major League Soccer match on April 5, 2026, 12:30 AM
Both teams are in the lower half of the table and aim to stay connected to the playoff spots
Form
New York RB's form across all competitions is WWLDL
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 games
They recently suffered a loss against Charlotte and a draw against Toronto before that
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Cincinnati's form across all competitions is WLLLW
This corresponds to 2 wins and 3 losses from the last 5 games
Cincinnati recently won against CF Montréal, but suffered 3 consecutive losses before that
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
New York RB scored an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 2.2 goals
In home games, the team scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 3.0 goals
Cincinnati averages 1.4 goals per game and 2.2 goals conceded this season
Away from home, Cincinnati scored an average of 1.0 goal and conceded 7.0 goals in their only away game this season
At Sports Illustrated Stadium, the previous 2 games saw an average of 2.0 goals per match
Both teams scored in 0 out of 2 games (0%) at this stadium
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 2 games (50%)
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, the record between New York RB and Cincinnati is balanced
Both teams have won 2 games each, with no draws
New York RB scored 5 goals in these matches, while Cincinnati scored 4 goals
The last encounter was won by Cincinnati away with a 1-0 score on October 4, 2025
Key Players
For New York RB, Julian Hall stands out with 4 season goals and an average rating of 7.19
Adri Mehmeti contributed 2 assists and has a rating of 7.09
Emil Forsberg achieved an average rating of 6.95 and provided 1 assist
For Cincinnati, Ender Echenique is an important player with 1 season goal and 2 assists, holding a rating of 7.15
Bryan RamĂrez achieved an average rating of 7.10 and provided 1 assist
KĂ©vin Denkey scored 2 goals this season and has a rating of 6.95
Goalkeepers
Ethan Horvath of New York RB played 5 season games and kept 1 clean sheet
He has an average rating of 6.85
On Cincinnati's side, Evan Louro has 1 season appearance with 0 clean sheets
His average rating is 6.42
Influences
New York RB plays at home, where the team scored 1 goal and conceded 3 goals in 1 game
Cincinnati scored 1 goal and conceded 7 goals in its only away game
The pitch surface at Sports Illustrated Stadium is grass
The previous 2 games at Sports Illustrated Stadium had an average of 2.0 goals per match