Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire - Nashville SC
04/05/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
26%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis suggests a home win probability of 41% for Chicago Fire, with 1.70 expected home goals
- Nashville SC leads the league with 13 points and boasts a robust defense, conceding on average only 0.4 goals per game
- Nashville SC has won all 4 direct encounters against Chicago Fire, with an impressive goal difference of 13-2
Risk Factors
- Key player Hugo Cuypers is sidelined, impacting 15% of Chicago Fire's usual starting XI goal contribution
- Nashville SC has played only one away game this season, limiting a comprehensive assessment of their away performance
- Chicago Fire shows inconsistent form with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches
Overview
Chicago Fire (6th place, 7 points) host Nashville SC (1st place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 1:30 AM. Nashville SC are currently league leaders, while Chicago Fire are positioned in the mid-table.
Form
Chicago Fire shows mixed form with 'LWDLW' in their last five games, recording 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a win. Nashville SC are in excellent form with 'WDWWW' from their last five matches, achieving 4 wins, 1 draw, and no losses, including three consecutive wins. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Chicago Fire has scored an average of 1.4 goals per game this season and conceded 1.0 goals. In home games, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded. Nashville SC is very strong offensively, averaging 2.6 goals per game, and possesses a very stable defense, conceding only 0.4 goals per game. In their only away game this season, Nashville SC scored 1.0 goals and conceded 0.0 goals. Both Teams To Score (BTTS) occurred in 3 of Chicago Fire's games and 2 of Nashville SC's games. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of Chicago Fire's games and 3 of Nashville SC's games.
Head-to-Head
In 4 previous head-to-head matches, Nashville SC has won all encounters, while Chicago Fire has secured no victories, and there have been no draws. Nashville SC scored a total of 13 goals and conceded 2. The last meeting on June 15, 2025, ended in a 0:2 victory for Nashville SC. Nashville SC has been the dominant team in recent matchups.
Key Players
For Chicago Fire, Jonathan Bamba stands out with 2 goals from 4 appearances (average rating 7.10 in last 5), Leonardo Barroso with 2 assists (average rating 6.84 in last 5), and Robin Lod with 1 goal and 1 assist (average rating 6.66 in last 5). Key players for Nashville SC include Sam Surridge with 7 goals from 4 appearances (average rating 7.91 in last 5), Cristian Espinoza with 2 goals and 2 assists (average rating 7.63 in last 5), and Hany Mukhtar with 2 goals (average rating 7.16 in last 5).
Goalkeepers
Chicago Fire's goalkeeper, Chris Brady, has recorded 2 clean sheets this season. Nashville SC's goalkeeper, Brian Schwake, has kept 3 clean sheets.
Influences
Chicago Fire demonstrates a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.67 goals per home game. Nashville SC conceded no goals in their only away game so far this season. No specific venue or weather data is available to influence the match.