Major League Soccer
Atlanta United - Columbus Crew
04/04/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.0
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Atlanta United
Columbus Crew
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
27%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis places Atlanta United as slight favorites with a 39% win probability, compared to Columbus Crew at 34%
- The head-to-head record favors Columbus Crew, who won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters, including the last one with a 5:4 score
- Atlanta United exhibits a more stable home defense, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Atlanta United averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Columbus Crew is in a form crisis with zero wins and two consecutive losses in their last 5 matches
- The small difference in win probabilities (Atlanta 39% vs. Columbus 34%) suggests an open match
Overview
Atlanta United (10th place, 4 points) host Columbus Crew (14th place, 2 points) in Major League Soccer
The match is scheduled for April 4, 2026, 7:30 PM
Both teams are at the lower end of the table
Form
Atlanta United's form is LLLWD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Their last match ended in a draw
Columbus Crew's form is LDDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), with two consecutive losses
Statistics
Atlanta United averages 1.0 home goal per game and concedes 0.8 goals
They achieved 1 clean sheet at home
Columbus Crew averages 1.0 away goal and concedes 1.4 goals
They have no away clean sheets
Atlanta United's matches saw both teams score in 2 games, Columbus Crew's in 3 games
Atlanta United had 2 games with over 2.5 goals, Columbus Crew had 3 games
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Atlanta United secured 1 win, while Columbus Crew won 3 times
Columbus Crew leads with 10 goals scored compared to Atlanta United's 7
The last encounter, on September 13, 2025, saw Columbus Crew win 5:4
Key Players
Key players for Atlanta United include Aleksey Miranchuk with 3 season goals and Emmanuel Latte Lath with 1 goal and 2 assists this season
Miguel AlmirĆ³n has contributed 2 assists
For Columbus Crew, Wessam Abou Ali is important with 3 season goals and 1 assist, as is Diego Rossi with 2 season goals
Max Arfsten contributed 1 assist, but his form is declining
Goalkeepers
Lucas Hoyos is the goalkeeper for Atlanta United and has achieved 1 clean sheet this season
Patrick Schulte, the goalkeeper for Columbus Crew, also has 1 clean sheet this season
Influences
Atlanta United demonstrates a solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game
Columbus Crew has a more vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match