Match report →
Orlando City – DC United4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Orlando City
2.36
Total xG
3.54
DC United
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Orlando City | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Marco Pašalić on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Lucas Bartlett not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jackson Hopkins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 89% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Orlando City is 7th in the league with 38 points, DC United is 12th with 33 points
- Home/Away: Orlando City scores 1.86 goals per game at home in the league, DC United concedes 1.62 per game away
- Attack: Orlando City scored 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, DC United conceded 2.0 per game in the last 5
Risks
- Personnel: Orlando City without R. Jansson, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Defense: Orlando City conceded 2.38 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Orlando City63%
Draw21%
DC United17%
Double chance
Orlando City or draw83%
DC United or draw37%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
2:1
10%
3:1
8%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Iván Angulo: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- DC United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Orlando City: 73% of all goals in the second half (19 of 26, last 12 games)
- Orlando City: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Orlando City 4-2-3-1 · DC United 4-4-2
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 9 D. Dike
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 13 S. Nealis
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 8 J. Stroud
- 2 K. Nono
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 9 T. Baribo
- 23 B. Servania
Substitutes
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 21 N. Miller
- 22 J. Ellis
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 11 T. Souza de Lima
- 4 M. Peltola
- 12 W. Antley
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
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