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Cincinnati – Columbus Crew0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
2.05
Total xG
3.60
Columbus Crew
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Ender Echenique on the bench (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Kenji Mboma Dem on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gerardo Valenzuela on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Mohamed Farsi on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Dylan Chambost on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Josef Martínez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Cincinnati average 2.77 goals per game at home in the league, Columbus Crew concede 2.14 per game away
- Standings: Cincinnati are 9th with 36 points from 28 games, Columbus Crew 13th with 32 points from 29 games
- xG: Cincinnati averaged 2.68 xG per game across 5 games with xG data, Columbus Crew 2.44 xG per game
Risks
- Form: Columbus Crew have 3 wins from their last 5 games, Cincinnati have 1 win from their last 5 games
- Defence: Cincinnati conceded 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 games, and 2.43 per game in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Columbus Crew won 3 of the 5 previous meetings, Cincinnati 2
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati48%
Draw24%
Columbus Crew28%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw72%
Columbus Crew or draw52%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
1:2
7%
3:1
6%
3:2
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (80', 82', 90+5')
- Cincinnati: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (12 points lost)
- Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-4-1-2 · Columbus Crew 3-4-3
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 11 S. Gidi
- 6 J. Malatini
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 23 D. Douděra
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 20 P. Bucha
- 3 T. Malacia
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 16 T. Habroune
- 11 B. Lennon
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
Substitutes
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 13 E. Louro
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 24 K. Smith
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. Ramírez León
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 3 E. Bailly
- 21 A. Zaroury
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 7 D. Chambost
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 77 J. Martínez
- 23 M. Farsi
- 26 L. Giaccone
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