đŸ‡ș🇾

Major League Soccer

DC United - New England

08/19/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
DC United
1.5
Total xG
3.4
New England
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUNE

DC United

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.10
Peglow not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

New England

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+1.18
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.05

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    DC United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 4
    New England with Diego FagĂșndez: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 5
    DC United with Kye Rowles: 2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

24%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

67%

Under 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Away defensive struggles: New England concede an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
  • Tactical approach: DC United recently played counter-oriented with an average of 39% possession, while New England averaged 57% possession to dominate
  • Opposing form trends: DC United are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, whereas New England suffered losses in their last two outings
Risk Factors
  • DC United show defensive vulnerabilities at home, conceding an average of 1.73 goals per game
  • New England's major defensive weakness is highlighted by their average of 3.0 goals conceded per away match
Overview

DC United host New England at Audi Field

Major League Soccer match on August 19, 2026, 11:30 PM

DC United sit in 9th place with 24 points, while New England are in 4th with 30 points

The model calculates a home win probability of 29% and an away win of 47%

Form

DC United are unbeaten in their last 5 games with a form of DDWDD (1 win, 4 draws)

New England have struggled recently with a form of DWDLL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

The hosts show a more stable trend compared to the visiting side

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

DC United score an average of 1.42 goals and concede 1.58 goals per game

New England average 1.53 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded this season

At home, DC United score 1.36 and concede a high average of 1.73 goals per game

Away from home, New England concede an extremely high average of 3.0 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 2 wins each and 1 draw in 5 head-to-head matches

The goal difference in these direct encounters is perfectly balanced at 6:6

The last match on April 11, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for New England

Key Players

Tai Baribo shines for DC United with 12 season goals and an average rating of 7.14

Carles Gil leads New England with 7 goals, 3 assists, and a strong rating of 7.55

Louis Munteanu has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists for the home side

Dor Turgeman remains highly dangerous for the visitors with 4 goals and 5 assists

Not nominated for DC United: Peglow (1 goal, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson guards the net for DC United, holding a 6.83 average rating and 4 clean sheets

Matt Turner is in goal for New England, boasting a 7.18 rating and 4 clean sheets

Both keepers enter this match with an identical number of clean sheets this season

Influences

Audi Field has proven to be highly entertaining with an average of 4.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in all of DC United's last 5 home matches (100% BTTS rate)

The match will be played on natural grass, fitting the standard conditions for both sides

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.