Major League Soccer
New England - Orlando City
09/19/2026, 11:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.4
1.5
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
New England
Orlando City
League
The Lab
- 1Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (15/7 games, last 25)
- 2New England: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
25%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- Defensive discrepancy: New England concedes only 0.85 goals at home, while Orlando City concedes an average of 3.25 goals away
- Tactical threat: New England recently averaged 6.4 shots on target per match, compared to Orlando City's average of 5.6
- Missing key players: Orlando City is missing crucial squad members including Antoine Griezmann (8 goals) and Griffin Dorsey
Risk Factors
- Historical H2H trend: New England is winless in their last 4 meetings against Orlando City, suffering 3 defeats
- Defensive vulnerability: Orlando City has already conceded 56 goals in 25 matches this season
Overview
New England (3rd place, 43 points) host Orlando City (6th place, 34 points) at the Gillette Stadium
An exciting clash in the upper region of the Major League Soccer table
The hosts enter the match as favorites with a 45% win probability according to the mathematical model
Form
New England shows a solid form with a DWLWW record (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The hosts recently secured two consecutive wins
Orlando City is in excellent shape with a WDWWW record and remains unbeaten in their last five matches
Statistics
New England scores an average of 1.64 goals and concedes 1.24 per game this season
At home, the hosts' defense is highly stable, conceding only 0.85 goals per match
Orlando City shines offensively with 1.76 goals per game but shows major defensive weaknesses with 2.24 goals conceded on average
Especially away from home, Orlando City concedes a massive average of 3.25 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, New England did not manage a single win
Orlando City dominates the history with 3 wins and 1 draw
The last meeting on July 19, 2025 ended in a 1-2 away victory for Orlando City
Key Players
For New England, Carles Gil shines with 10 goals and Dor Turgeman has 7 goals and 6 assists
Peyton Miller contributed 5 goals and 4 assists
Orlando City relies on MartĂn Ojeda with 11 goals and Justin Ellis with 9 assists
Tyrese Spicer scored 6 goals this season
Not nominated for New England: Alhassan Yusuf (5 goals, 1 assist) and Jack Harrison (3 assists)
Not nominated for Orlando City: Antoine Griezmann (8 goals, 3 assists), Griffin Dorsey (3 goals, 1 assist), Zakaria Taifi, and Eduard Atuesta
Goalkeepers
New England relies on Matt Turner with 5 clean sheets and a rating of 7.18
Orlando City's goal is guarded by Maxime Crépeau with 4 clean sheets and a rating of 6.81
Influences
The match is played on artificial turf
New England has a positive home record on this surface with 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
Orlando City won their only artificial turf game of the season by 3-2