Match report →
New England – Orlando City4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.86
Total xG
3.39
Orlando City
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | Orlando City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.87 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Alhassan Yusuf not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jack Harrison not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Antoine Griezmann on the bench (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Griffin Dorsey not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Zakaria Taifi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Eduard Atuesta on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive discrepancy: New England concedes only 0.85 goals at home, while Orlando City concedes an average of 3.25 goals away
- Tactical threat: New England recently averaged 6.4 shots on target per match, compared to Orlando City's average of 5.6
- Missing key players: Orlando City is missing crucial squad members including Antoine Griezmann (8 goals) and Griffin Dorsey
Risks
- Historical H2H trend: New England is winless in their last 4 meetings against Orlando City, suffering 3 defeats
- Defensive vulnerability: Orlando City has already conceded 56 goals in 25 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
New England44%
Draw25%
Orlando City31%
Double chance
New England or draw69%
Orlando City or draw56%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (15/7 games, last 25)
- New England: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
Lineups
New England 4-3-3 · Orlando City 4-4-2
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 14 J. Yueill
- 25 P. Miller
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 16 D. Gazdag
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 14 T. Spicer
- 22 J. Ellis
- 10 M. Ojeda
Substitutes
- 66 J. Wynder
- 73 J. Gunn
- 4 T. Beason
- 12 I. Feingold
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 17 M. Zambrano-Delgado
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
- 9 D. Dike
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 23 H. Sarajian
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