Match report →
CF Montréal – Atlanta United0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.50
Total xG
3.01
Atlanta United
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Prince Owusu on the bench (15 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Tristan Muyumba on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tomás Jacob not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Balanced projection: The model calculates a 36% win chance for each side with 1.50 predicted goals
- Scoring trend: Atlanta United averaged 1.5 goals in recent matches while CF Montréal averaged 1.0
- Squad impact: Top scorer Prince Owusu (15 goals) is not in CF Montréal's starting lineup
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: CF Montréal concede an average of 2.00 goals per match overall
- Away defense: Atlanta United concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal36%
Draw27%
Atlanta United36%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw64%
Atlanta United or draw64%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Atlanta United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- CF Montréal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-2-3-1 · Atlanta United 4-1-4-1
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 2 J. Neal
- 5 B. Craig
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 23 N. Streit
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 47 M. Edwards
- 27 P. Díaz Huincales
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 14 M. Amaro Viega
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 35 A. Fortune
- 11 G. Galoppo
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 36 B. Embolo
Substitutes
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 6 S. Piette
- 9 P. Owusu
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 22 V. Loturi
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 29 O. Escobar
- 26 I. Losenko
- 41 S. Keita
- 21 F. Herbers
- 25 F. Amaya
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 7 S. Alzate
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 19 S. Santos Gomes
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 22 F. Picault
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