Match report â
Inter Miami â DC United4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
2.04
Total xG
3.37
DC United
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | â0.26 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.5 season average) | â0.26 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 3, 9 places gap) | â0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | â0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 12, 9 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| GermĂĄn Berterame not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Telasco Segovia not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Ian Fray not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Tai Baribo not in squad (14 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Louis Munteanu not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 73% available) |
Key factors
- Offensive power at Chase Stadium: Inter Miami scored 64 season goals (avg 2.37) and Chase Stadium averaged 4.6 goals per game recently
- H2H dominance & model odds: Inter Miami won 4 of the last 5 meetings against DC United with the model predicting a 53% home win probability
- Visitor attack compromised: DC United are without Tai Baribo (14 goals) and Louis Munteanu (6 goals) in their starting lineup
Risks
- Inter Miami form dip: Inter Miami are winless in 5 matches (form DDDDL) and averaged only 1.6 goals per match in recent outings
- Defensive vulnerabilities: Inter Miami have conceded 50 goals this season (avg 1.85) while DC United concede avg 1.42 goals away
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami53%
Draw24%
DC United24%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw76%
DC United or draw47%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
3:1
6%
2:2
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Inter Miami: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
- Inter Miami: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- DC United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (7 points lost)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · DC United 4-4-2
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 2 G. LujĂĄn Melli
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. ReguilĂłn RodrĂguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 22 D. Ayala
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. SuĂĄrez DĂaz
- 19 G. Berterame
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 2 K. Nono
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 77 H. Kijima
- 27 N. Markovic
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 9 T. Baribo
- 25 J. Hopkins
Substitutes
- 4 F. Mura
- 8 T. Segovia PĂ©rez
- 17 I. Fray
- 20 S. Morales
- 34 R. RĂos Novo
- 37 M. FalcĂłn Picart
- 42 Y. Bright
- 56 D. Pintér
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 13 L. Barraza
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 70 D. Sumalla
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 47 I. Zeltzer-Zubida
- 5 S. Hefti
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 12 W. Antley
- 13 S. Nealis
- 23 B. Servania
- 26 A. Bono
- 48 G. Turner
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
- 20 G. Leveille
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