Match report →
Orlando City – New York City2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Orlando City
2.04
Total xG
3.32
New York City
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Orlando City | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.20 | |
| M. Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Orlando City won 2 of their last 5 matches, while New York City were winless (2 draws, 3 losses)
- Home/Away: Orlando City with 2 goals per match at home in the league, New York City with 1.07 goals per match away
Risks
- Squad: Orlando City without R. Jansson, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: New York City won 4 of the 5 meetings against Orlando City (1 draw)
All probabilities
Result
Orlando City54%
Draw24%
New York City22%
Double chance
Orlando City or draw78%
New York City or draw46%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.04 : 1.27, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Orlando City: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York City: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Iván Angulo: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Orlando City with Justin Ellis starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (16/9 games, last 30)
- New York City with Hannes Wolf starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (17/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Orlando City 4-2-3-1 · New York City 4-3-3
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 8 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 22 J. Ellis
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 7 A. Griezmann
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
- 17 H. Wolf
Substitutes
- 9 D. Dike
- 3 A. Marín Gómez
- 12 Javier Otero
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 21 N. Miller
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
- 9 B. Traore
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 3 M. Miazga
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
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