Match report ā
Cincinnati ā New England2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Cincinnati
1.66
Total xG
3.21
New England
1.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cincinnati | New England |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | ā0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | ā0.02 | |
| Evander on the bench (13 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Pavel Bucha on the bench (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Kenji Mboma Dem on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Jackson Yueill on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mamadou Fofana not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Goal-rich venue: TQL Stadium averages 4.8 goals per match with 100% BTTS rate
- Offensive output: Cincinnati averages 2.15 goals per game led by KĆ©vin Denkey with 16 goals
- Model expectations: Calculated model projects 65% chance of both teams scoring with expected goals of 1.66 to 1.54
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability: Cincinnati concedes 2.41 goals per game on average this season
- Recent slump: New England lost their last 2 league matches
- Away defensive record: New England concedes 1.92 goals per away match on average
All probabilities
Result
Cincinnati40%
Draw26%
New England34%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
Cincinnati or draw66%
New England or draw60%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New England: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (80', 82', 90+5')
- Cincinnati: 3 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
Lineups
Cincinnati 3-5-2 Ā· New England 4-2-3-1
Cincinnati
- 13 E. Louro
- 24 K. Smith
- 6 J. Malatini
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 66 E. Echenique PeƱa
- 27 B. Anunga
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 3 T. Malacia
- 16 T. Barlow
- 9 A. Denkey
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 12 I. Feingold
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 23 W. Sands
- 8 M. Polster
- 21 B. Raines
- 25 P. Miller
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 99 D. Turgeman
Substitutes
- 23 D. DoudÄra
- 11 S. Gidi
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 18 R. Celentano
- 20 P. Bucha
- 29 B. RamĆrez LeĆ³n
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 41 L. Langoni
- 15 C. Baker
- 77 D. FagĆŗndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
- 65 J. Siqueira
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