Match report →
Toronto – DC United2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toronto
1.77
Total xG
2.99
DC United
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toronto | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | +0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Lewis Morgan not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tai Baribo not in squad (16 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jackson Hopkins not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Toronto average 2.12 goals per match at home in the league this season, DC United concede 1.8 away
- Form: DC United lost 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match
- Shots: Toronto averaged 5.4 shots on target per match over their last 5 matches, DC United 2.6
Risks
- Head-to-head: DC United won 2 of the 5 direct meetings since 2024, Toronto 1
- Defence: Toronto conceded 2 goals per match at home in the league this season and 10 goals in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Toronto49%
Draw26%
DC United25%
Double chance
Toronto or draw75%
DC United or draw51%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.77 : 1.21, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toronto: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 2 goals (90+3', 90+5')
- Toronto: 8 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Toronto: 77% of all goals in the second half (17 of 22, last 12 games)
- DC United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Toronto 4-3-3 · DC United 4-4-2
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 15 N. Gomis
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 21 J. Osorio
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 10 D. Mihailovic
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 9 J. Sargent
- 20 D. Salloi
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 4 M. Peltola
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 8 J. Stroud
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 22 N. Ordaz
Substitutes
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 90 L. Morgan
- 38 J. Gilman
- 96 R. Chukwu
- 12 W. Antley
- 13 S. Nealis
- 23 B. Servania
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 24 J. Farr
- 40 K. Reynoso
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