Major League Soccer
Atlanta United - Sporting KC
08/23/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
Atlanta United
Sporting KC
League
The Lab
- 1Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Sporting KC with Stephen Afrifa: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Sporting KC: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Atlanta United: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Atlanta United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
51%
Draw
28%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
49%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Atlanta United currently scores more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.2), while Sporting KC's goal production stalls at 0.6
- Major disadvantage on artificial turf: Sporting KC lost both of their previous matches on this surface with a score of 0:9
- Tactical comparison: Atlanta United averaged 4.0 shots on target with 44% possession in recent matches
Risk Factors
- Dejan JoveljiÄ is missing from the squad, leaving only 64% of the usual goal threat available
- Short recovery time for both teams with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Disastrous away defensive record with an average of 4.43 goals conceded per away game for Sporting KC
Overview
Atlanta United hosts Sporting KC at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Major League Soccer match on August 23, 2026, 11:00 PM
A clash between table neighbors from the lower tier of the standings
Atlanta United is in 15th place with 18 points
Sporting KC occupies 15th place with 15 points
The mathematical model predicts a 51% home win probability with 1.60 expected goals for Atlanta United
Form
Atlanta United's form is on the rise with two consecutive wins
Home team form string: DLLWW
The home side recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches
Sporting KC shows a negative trend and is winless in four matches
Away team form string: WLLLD
The away side registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Statistics
Atlanta United scores an average of 1.15 goals and concedes 1.75 goals per game this season
In home matches, the home side averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded
Sporting KC scores an average of 0.95 goals and concedes 2.45 goals per match
The visitors are particularly vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 4.43 goals per away game
For Atlanta United, 13 out of 20 matches ended with both teams scoring
Sporting KC has not recorded a single clean sheet this season
Key Players
Miguel AlmirĆ³n has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists in 14 appearances with an average rating of 7.41
Aleksey Miranchuk contributed 5 goals and 7 assists in 19 matches with a rating of 7.22
Tristan Muyumba scored 4 goals in 20 matches with a rating of 7.07
Calvin Harris has registered 3 goals and 3 assists in 20 appearances with a rating of 6.75
Lasse Berg Johnsen has recorded 1 goal in 16 appearances with a rating of 6.91
Jake Davis has contributed 2 assists in 19 appearances with a rating of 6.59
Goalkeepers
Lucas Hoyos guards the goal for Atlanta United with 20 appearances, an average rating of 6.74, and 1 clean sheet
Stefan Cleveland is in goal for Sporting KC with 11 appearances, a rating of 6.57, and 0 clean sheets
Influences
The Mercedes-Benz Stadium features an artificial turf surface
Atlanta United recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses on this surface this season, with 14:18 goals
Sporting KC lost both previous matches on artificial turf with a combined score of 0:9
Stadium statistics show an average of 3.6 goals per game with a 100% BTTS rate