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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - Atlanta United

07/18/2026, 12:10 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Atlanta United
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NSAU

Nashville SC

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.10
Cristian Espinoza on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists)
Warren Madrigal on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Bryan Acosta on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Atlanta United

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.39
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.16
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.10
Saba Lobjanidze on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Atlanta United with Juan Berrocal: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

28%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Offense-defense mismatch: Nashville scores an average of 2.30 goals at home, while Atlanta concedes an average of 3.00 goals away
  • Table dominance: League leaders Nashville are unbeaten in 5 games, while Atlanta sits in 14th place
  • Goalscorer availability: Sam Surridge (9 goals) and Hany Mukhtar (6 goals) are ready for Nashville, despite missing players like Cristian Espinoza
Risk Factors
  • Squad absences for Nashville: Cristian Espinoza, Warren Madrigal, and Bryan Acosta are not in the lineup
  • Rising trend for visitors: Atlanta United currently scores more goals recently (1.40) compared to their season average (1.08)
  • Data restriction: Limited data on duel statistics for both teams
Overview

Nashville SC host Atlanta United

League leaders Nashville SC (33 points) face 14th-placed Atlanta United (11 points)

Match on July 18, 2026, 2:10 AM at GEODIS Park

The home side enters the game as clear favorites

Form

Nashville SC is in strong shape with the form string DDWWW

They achieved 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Atlanta United shows inconsistent performances with the form string WWLDL

The visitors recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Nashville SC averages 2.21 goals scored and only 0.79 goals conceded per game

At home, their scoring average rises to 2.30 goals per match

Atlanta United scores an average of 1.00 goal per game while conceding 1.64

On the road, Atlanta concedes an average of 3.00 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between the teams

Nashville SC celebrated 2 wins, while Atlanta United won 1 match

There were also 2 draws, with a goal difference of 6:3 in favor of Nashville

The last encounter on April 18, 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Nashville

Key Players

Hany Mukhtar scored 6 goals and provided 4 assists in 14 matches

Sam Surridge has 9 goals in 8 appearances with a rating of 7.43

Maxwell Woledzi stabilizes the defense with an average rating of 7.09

Aleksey Miranchuk scored 5 goals and gave 2 assists in 13 appearances for the visitors

Ajani Fortune scored 2 goals in 9 games with a rating of 6.92

Tristan Muyumba scored 1 goal in 14 games with a rating of 6.96

Goalkeepers

Brian Schwake played 14 matches for Nashville, keeping 6 clean sheets

Lucas Hoyos played 14 matches for Atlanta, keeping 1 clean sheet

The statistical comparison favors the home goalkeeper

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at GEODIS Park

In the last 5 home games, an average of 4.6 goals were scored per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of these 5 games

All 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

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