Match report →
Nashville SC – Atlanta United1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
1.63
Total xG
2.72
Atlanta United
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | Atlanta United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Cristian Espinoza on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Warren Madrigal on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Bryan Acosta on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Saba Lobjanidze on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 100% available) |
Key factors
- Offense-defense mismatch: Nashville scores an average of 2.30 goals at home, while Atlanta concedes an average of 3.00 goals away
- Table dominance: League leaders Nashville are unbeaten in 5 games, while Atlanta sits in 14th place
- Goalscorer availability: Sam Surridge (9 goals) and Hany Mukhtar (6 goals) are ready for Nashville, despite missing players like Cristian Espinoza
Risks
- Squad absences for Nashville: Cristian Espinoza, Warren Madrigal, and Bryan Acosta are not in the lineup
- Rising trend for visitors: Atlanta United currently scores more goals recently (1.40) compared to their season average (1.08)
- Data restriction: Limited data on duel statistics for both teams
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC48%
Draw28%
Atlanta United24%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw76%
Atlanta United or draw52%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Atlanta United with Juan Berrocal: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2.7 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Nashville SC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlanta United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-4-2 · Atlanta United 4-3-3
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 22 J. Bauer
- 5 J. Maher
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 37 A. Qasem
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 9 S. Surridge
Atlanta United
- 1 L. Hoyos
- 47 M. Edwards
- 55 T. Jacob
- 4 E. Mihaj
- 3 E. Báez Sotelo
- 8 T. Muyumba Nkita
- 20 L. Brennan
- 48 C. Sanchez
- 35 A. Fortune
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
- 59 A. Miranchuk
Substitutes
- 1 J. Willis
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 17 W. Pacius
- 19 A. Muyl
- 23 J. Knight
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 21 T. Williams
- 12 C. Brunet
- 2 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 9 E. Latte Lath
- 18 P. Santos Amador
- 42 J. Hibbert
- 16 A. Simons Gill
- 30 C. Togashi
- 22 F. Picault
- 28 W. Reilly
- 56 I. Suarez-Couri
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