Major League Soccer
San Diego - Portland Timbers
04/26/2026, 01:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
San Diego
Portland Timbers
League
The Lab
- 1San Diego with Amahl Pellegrino: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Portland Timbers with Ian Smith: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3San Diego: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4San Diego: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
27%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- San Diego's strong home defense (Avg. 0.67 goals conceded) meets Portland's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 3.33 goals conceded)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 46% probability
- San Diego dominates head-to-head encounters with 3 wins and a goal difference of 12:3 in 5 matches
Risk Factors
- San Diego has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- San Diego's goal production has recently declined (Avg. 1.0 goals), with the season average at 1.8 goals
- The unlisted Lewis MorganĀ reduces San Diego's available assist threat by 15%
Overview
San Diego (10th place, 11 points) host Portland Timbers (13th place, 7 points) in Major League Soccer
The match is scheduled for April 26, 2026, 3:30 AM
Both teams aim to improve their mid-table positions
Form
San Diego's current form is poor: DLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches
Their last game ended in a loss
Portland Timbers' form is LDLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Portland Timbers also lost their last game
Statistics
San Diego scored an average of 1.78 goals per game this season and conceded 1.67 goals
In home games, San Diego is strong offensively (Avg. 1.67 goals) and defensively (Avg. 0.67 goals conceded)
The team kept 3 clean sheets and both teams scored in 4 matches
6 of their games ended with over 2.5 goals
Portland Timbers scored an average of 1.38 goals per game and conceded 2.25 goals
Away from home, Portland Timbers scored Avg. 1.33 goals and conceded Avg. 3.33 goals
The team has kept 0 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches
5 of their games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches between San Diego and Portland Timbers, San Diego secured 3 wins
There were 0 wins for Portland Timbers and 2 draws
San Diego scored 12 goals, while Portland Timbers scored 3 goals
The last encounter saw San Diego win convincingly 4:0 on November 10, 2025
San Diego has shown recent dominance in these matchups
Key Players
San Diego can rely on key players
Marcus Ingvartsen scored 5 goals and 2 assists this season with an average rating of 7.17
Anders Dreyer contributed 4 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.65
Onni Valakari has 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.99
For Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde is a key player with 3 goals and a rating of 6.86
Kevin Kelsy scored 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 6.69
Cole Bassett contributed 0 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.26
Goalkeepers
Duran Ferree is San Diego's goalkeeper and has 8 season appearances
San Diego achieved 3 clean sheets this season
James Pantemis is Portland Timbers' goalkeeper with 8 season appearances
Portland Timbers achieved 0 clean sheets this season
Influences
San Diego shows strong offensive performance in home games with an average of 1.67 goals scored
Their home defense is also robust, allowing only 0.67 goals conceded per game
Portland Timbers scores an average of 1.33 goals away from home
Their away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per game