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New York RB – Inter Miami2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
1.86
Total xG
3.80
Inter Miami
1.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Lionel Messi on the bench (25 goals, 13 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Goals: New York RB concedes 1.93 goals per game at home in the league, Inter Miami scores 2.13 per game away
- Shots on target: Inter Miami averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, New York RB 5.6 per game
Risks
- Table: Inter Miami is 2nd in the league with 55 points from 30 games, New York RB 9th with 36 points
- Head-to-head: Inter Miami won 3 of the 5 meetings between the teams, New York RB 1 with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
New York RB37%
Draw23%
Inter Miami40%
Double chance
New York RB or draw60%
Inter Miami or draw63%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.86 : 1.94, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
7%
2:2
7%
1:3
5%
2:3
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 3.1 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- New York RB: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- New York RB: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- New York RB: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
New York RB 4-3-3 · Inter Miami 4-3-3
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 26 T. Parker
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 22 D. Ayala
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 19 G. Berterame
Substitutes
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 17 C. Harper
- 60 S. Kone
- 4 F. Mura
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 17 I. Fray
- 20 S. Morales
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 42 Y. Bright
- 56 D. Pintér
- 88 A. Shaw
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