šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Austin - Philadelphia Union

08/23/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Austin
1.4
Total xG
3.1
Philadelphia Union
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AUSPU

Austin

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.69
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Facundo Torres on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)

Philadelphia Union

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.65
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.22
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.22
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin with Ilie SƔnchez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Austin: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Philadelphia Union: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

26%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Not nominated: Facundo Torres (2G/5A)
  • Philadelphia Union averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • The mathematical model estimates an away win probability of 45%
Risk Factors
  • Austin with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.17 goals in away matches
Overview

Austin (14th place, 20 points) host Philadelphia Union (13th place, 20 points) at the Q2 Stadium

MLS match on August 23, 2026, 2:30 AM

Both teams fight for crucial points in the lower half of the table

Form

Austin has a record of WLLLW in their last 5 games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently they won 2-1 against Seattle Sounders

Philadelphia Union is unbeaten in 5 matches with a form of WWWWD

Most recently they drew 2-2 against Inter Miami

Statistics

Austin scores an average of 1.25 goals and concedes 1.95 goals per game

At home Austin concedes only 0.9 goals per match

Philadelphia Union scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.85 goals

Away Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.17 goals

Both teams scored in 12 of Austin's 20 matches

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match in the last 2 years

The match on March 17, 2024 ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Myrto Uzuni scored 6 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Christian Ramirez contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia Union with 10 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Brad Stuver kept 4 clean sheets this season for Austin

Andre Blake achieved 3 clean sheets so far for Philadelphia Union

Influences

The match is played on grass at Q2 Stadium

The historical average at this stadium is 3.0 goals per game

Austin has a positive goal difference of 13-9 at home

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.