Match report ā
Chicago Fire ā New York City2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
1.62
Total xG
2.76
New York City
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | ā0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ā0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | ā0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | ā0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | ā0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | ā0.01 | |
| Luighi on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Prediction edge: The model calculates a 47% home win probability for Chicago Fire with 1.62 expected goals
- Tactical advantage: Chicago Fire averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to New York City's 3.4
- Offensive momentum: Chicago Fire enter on a 2-game winning streak powered by Maren Haile-Selassie (9 goals) and Robert Lewandowski (6 goals)
Risks
- Rest disadvantage: Chicago Fire enter with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Historical head-to-head: New York City remain unbeaten in their last 5 direct encounters (3 wins, 2 draws)
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire47%
Draw28%
New York City25%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw75%
New York City or draw53%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York City: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (9 points lost)
- Chicago Fire: 30% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 20)
- Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-4-2 Ā· New York City 4-2-3-1
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 6 A. SalƩtros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 19 J. Bamba
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea CastaƱeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. FernƔndez Mercau
- 17 H. Wolf
- 16 A. MartĆnez Batista
Substitutes
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 32 N. Allen
- 29 D. PorÄba
- 15 A. Gutman
- 18 J. Gomez
- 9 B. Traore
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 3 M. Miazga
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
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