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Major League Soccer

Atlanta United - New York City

09/26/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlanta United
1.3
Total xG
2.6
New York City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AUNYC

Atlanta United

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.75
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Aleksey Miranchuk on the bench (6 goals, 7 assists)
Miguel AlmirĂłn on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 40% available)

New York City

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.23
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.21
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.03
Luighi on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
Tayvon Gray on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City: 80% of all goals in the first half (12 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 2
    Tristan Muyumba: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    New York City: 33% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 15)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

30%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Weakened home attack: Atlanta United is missing Aleksey Miranchuk and Miguel AlmirĂłn, leaving only 41% of their typical goal threat on the pitch
  • Low shooting efficiency: Both teams recently averaged just 3.2 shots on target per match
  • Declining offensive output: New York City's goal production slowed down to an average of 1.0 goals recently, compared to their season average of 1.5
Risk Factors
  • Lack of match practice: Away goalkeeper TomĂĄs Romero has not played a single minute in a league match this season
  • Away defensive vulnerability: New York City concedes an average of 1.44 goals per away game
Overview

Atlanta United (14th place, 26 points) hosts New York City (10th place, 32 points)

Major League Soccer match on September 26, 2026, 11:30 PM

Played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

Both teams fight for crucial points in the middle of the standings

Form

Atlanta United shows the recent form of LDLDW

The hosts recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

New York City has a form record of DDLWL

The visitors also registered 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlanta United averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per match

In 15 home games, Atlanta scored 17 times and conceded 21 goals

New York City averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 1.44 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In 4 direct matches, both teams have 1 win each and 2 draws

The overall goal difference is 10:7 in favor of New York City

The last encounter ended in a 4-0 victory for New York City

Key Players

For Atlanta United, Breel Embolo (1 goal), Tristan Muyumba (4 goals), and ElĂ­as BĂĄez (1 goal, 3 assists) are key

For New York City, NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez Mercau (15 goals, 4 assists) and AgustĂ­n Ojeda (5 goals, 8 assists) stand out

Andrés Perea (1 goal, 1 assist) is also featured in the visitors' starting lineup

Goalkeepers

Lucas Hoyos starts for Atlanta in goal and has kept 3 clean sheets this season

TomĂĄs Romero starts for New York City

Romero has not made any league appearances this season

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Atlanta recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 defeats on this surface

Recent matches at this venue have seen an average of 3.2 goals

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