Match report →
DC United – New York RB2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.71
Total xG
3.36
New York RB
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.60 | +0.60 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Louis Munteanu not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Peglow on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tight model projection: Win probabilities are closely balanced at 39% for DC United and 36% for New York RB
- High probability of goals on both sides: The model calculates a 68% chance for both teams to score
- Dangerous attack leaders: Tai Baribo scores consistently for DC United while Julian Hall shows rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 matches
Risks
- Away defensive vulnerability: New York RB average 2.08 goals conceded per away match
- Low possession share: DC United averaged just 35.6% possession in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
DC United39%
Draw25%
New York RB36%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Double chance
DC United or draw64%
New York RB or draw61%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tai Baribo: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- DC United: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
DC United 4-3-3 · New York RB 4-3-3
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 23 B. Servania
- 32 O. Avilez
- 9 T. Baribo
- 25 J. Hopkins
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 16 J. Hall
- 7 C. Cowell
Substitutes
- 4 M. Peltola
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 8 J. Stroud
- 13 S. Nealis
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 40 K. Reynoso
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 17 C. Harper
- 60 S. Kone
- 45 C. Faello
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