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Major League Soccer10/15/2026, 12:30 AM

Nashville SC – Sporting KC4 : 0

Why the model thinks so

Nashville SC
2.52
Total xG
3.53
Sporting KC
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorNashville SCSporting KC
High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)+0.78+0.78
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.34
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.2 season average)+0.34
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap)+0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap)−0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.01
Patrick Yazbek on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Calvin Harris on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Stephen Afrifa on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Taylor Calheira on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Justin Reynolds not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Emir Karic on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Lasse Berg Johnsen not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 36% available)

Key factors

  • Visitor squad impact: Only 37% of threat active without Calvin Harris, Stephen Afrifa, Taylor Calheira, Justin Reynolds, Emir Karic, Lasse Berg Johnsen
  • Form edge and model expectation: Nashville SC on a 3-match winning streak with a calculated win probability of 69%
  • Defensive contrast: Nashville SC concede just 0.63 goals per home match, compared to Sporting KC conceding 3.55 per away match

Risks

  • Away defensive weakness: Sporting KC concede an average of 3.55 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head records
  • Weather factor: Light rain conditions at 29.31°C

All probabilities

Result
Nashville SC69%
Draw19%
Sporting KC12%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw88%
Sporting KC or draw31%
No draw81%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%

Most likely scores

2:1
9%
3:1
8%
3:0
8%
4:1
5%
4:0
5%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
  2. Nashville SC: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Austin: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
  3. Sporting KC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (9 points lost)
  4. Sporting KC: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)

Lineups

Nashville SC 4-2-3-1 · Sporting KC 4-4-2

Nashville SC
  • 99 B. Schwake
  • 31 A. Najar RodrĂ­guez
  • 4 J. Palacios Murillo
  • 3 M. Woledzi
  • 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
  • 20 E. Tagseth
  • 16 M. Corcoran
  • 7 C. Espinoza
  • 10 H. Mukhtar
  • 11 E. Saad
  • 9 S. Surridge
Sporting KC
  • 30 S. Cleveland
  • 2 I. James
  • 15 J. Miller
  • 28 W. Meyer
  • 99 J. Reid
  • 11 A. InĂĄcio da Silva
  • 22 Z. Bassong
  • 20 K. Agyabeng
  • 93 M. Suleymanov
  • 24 R. Ramos Jr.
  • 29 S. Garfield-Reid
Substitutes
  • 1 J. Willis
  • 2 D. Lovitz
  • 5 J. Maher
  • 6 B. Acosta Ramos
  • 8 P. Yazbek
  • 19 A. Muyl
  • 22 J. Bauer
  • 41 W. Madrigal Molina
  • 14 S. Mohammed
  • 18 E. Karic
  • 1 J. Pulskamp
  • 8 J. Davis
  • 14 C. Harris
  • 16 J. Bartlett
  • 17 S. Afrifa
  • 19 T. Calheira
  • 23 E. Bartlow
  • 7 O. Capemba

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