Match report ā
DC United ā Los Angeles FC0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.49
Total xG
3.19
Los Angeles FC
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ā0.18 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | ā0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | ā0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ā0.08 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Tai Baribo not in squad (12 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Silvan Hefti not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Los Angeles FC are the favorites with a calculated win probability of 41% and 1.70 expected goals
- DC United's home defense is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per home game
- The hosts' attacking output is stuttering, with only 1.2 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.5
Risks
- Limited data availability on head-to-head records in the provided dataset
- Los Angeles FC's defense is more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.38 goals
- DC United must cope without Tai Baribo and Silvan Hefti, impacting their starting XI strength
All probabilities
Result
DC United33%
Draw26%
Los Angeles FC41%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Double chance
DC United or draw59%
Los Angeles FC or draw67%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: 4 comebacks in 7 games after trailing past minute 75 (6 points rescued)
- DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- DC United: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Los Angeles FC: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
DC United 4-3-3 Ā· Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 2 K. Nono
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 23 B. Servania
- 4 M. Peltola
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 11 L. Munteanu
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 22 N. Ordaz
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura MartĆnez
- 8 M. Delgado
- 99 D. Bouanga
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 7 H. Son
Substitutes
- 8 J. Stroud
- 13 S. Nealis
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 77 H. Kijima
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 22 J. Terry
- 31 C. Carter
- 90 T. Mihalic
- 44 C. Diaz
- 49 C. Kosakoff
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account ā